SaintsWin: Analysis, Examination, Opinion

The 2012 Free Agent Quandary

2012-02-22T09:32:00.018-06:00

For Saints' fans who have emerged from the depths of the soul-crushing loss at San Francisco, the dominant headline is the lingering futility of the Brees' contract negotiations.

Why hasn't a deal been yet finalized?

Brees and his agent are asking in the neighborhood of $22-$23 million per year. And apparently the Saints don't want to pay him anywhere close to that. There is obviously a middle ground somewhere, but for some reason it's evaded both parties. Regardless, it is certainly not Brees' duty to take a bad deal in order to "keep the team together." Instead, Brees should receive what he's rightfully earned.

Why should Brees take a sub-market value price of, say, $16-$17 million so that the Saints might be able to re-sign both Nicks and Colston?

Who's to say that even if Brees did so, the team could still afford long-term deals for all three players?

Here's the thing: Brees shouldn't take anything but top dollar. For the past six seasons, Brees played under a contract that paid him in line with the league average. The Saints basically got an Aston Martin for the price of a Toyota Camry, all while Brees was re-writing the NFL record book and winning a Super Bowl. Here's where Brees' base salary has placed him among his peers during the past six seasons:

'06 - 17th
'07 - 11th
'08 - 11th
'09 - 17th
'10 - 11th
'11 - 14th

Any person who thinks Brees should now "take one for the team" is out of his/her mind. That's what he just did for the past six years, and it's one of the reasons the Saints have been able to assemble a deep and talented team around him. Now it's time to pay up. Brees is due, and has more than earned, a contract requisite with being the best player in the league. There's no getting around it. It's Loomis' job to figure out how to keep the core of the team together, not Brees'.

And do people really think that the qualities that make Brees who he is will suddenly disappear during contract negotiations?

Let's not forget that, not too long ago, Brees thought his career as an NFL QB might be over. But then it wasn't. And then he spent the next six seasons compiling the most prolific set of benchmarks for any QB in NFL history, breathing life into a franchise and city, and winning a Super Bowl.

And now he's reached, in all likelihood, the absolute peak of his earning power. Not only should Brees exercise the full weight of his leverage, he shouldn't be expected to--or guilted into--taking less than what is rightfully fair in this case.

Lost in all of this is that Mickey Loomis might have, for once, miscalculated.

This ESPN article from TWO years ago suggested that a new deal was in the works, and stated that "nobody around the league expects Brees to play the 2010 season under the six-year, $60 million contract that he signed in March 2006." But what happened? Brees played two more seasons under his original deal. Nothing got done. Why?

Maybe the front office thought that by waiting it out, they would gain some semblance of leverage. After all, they were all but certain that Brees would not publicly make an issue of it. So why not wait? But now, after the historic season Brees just delivered, any minimal amount of leverage that Loomis was counting on has completely eroded.

In fact, Loomis is now probably in the worst spot he could be in. Long ago, Brees could have been signed to a more team-friendly contract, leaving the Saints with more cap room. Moreover, progress could be underway with the various other pressing free agent issues facing the Saints. But it appears that Loomis' strategy has backfired, and the Saints are now closing in on the date that will necessitate them using the franchise tag on Brees.

The horror.

I know it's business and all, but tagging Brees would be a terribly poor reflection on the front office and an insult of the highest order to Brees. Combine this with the fact that, by tagging Brees, both Nicks and Colston would walk into an open market and the potential ramifications of this quandary represent a worst-case scenario for how this mess is playing out.

Does Brees want Nicks and Colston to return? Of course he does, but it's completely out of his hands. Nobody thinks Brees is going to hold hostage the franchise and demand $25 million. But it's also completely unreasonable for him to take a bad deal so Loomis has the chance to sign other players. Again, this current situation is the end result of Loomis' strategy. He's painted himself into this corner. Maybe he has it figured out, but if he does, this is an odd way of going about it. It's not Brees' obligation to rescue him.

Meanwhile, Carl Nicks has repeatedly stated that he wants to be paid more than Jahri Evans, who is the second highest-paid guard in the league. In reality it's probably impossible to make that happen, all things considered. If the Saints can't come to a long-term agreement with Nicks (which seems likely) and they ultimately use the tag on him this season, they'll be in a spot to either:

1) Pay him for 2012 under the "exclusive" franchise tag, keep him for one more run at the Super Bowl, draft his replacement, and let him walk after next season.

2) Allow him to enter free agency under the "non-exclusive" tag and sign elsewhere this offseason. In this scenario, the Saints will be compensated with two first-round draft picks. And though the loss of Nicks will diminish the Saints' chances at winning the 2012 ('13) Super Bowl, they'll at least be compensated for drafting and developing Nicks.

But mind you, none of this can happen if Brees is not signed to a contract in the very near future.

So where does Colston fit in to all of this? Actually, I have no clue. But my guess is that Colston will ultimately remain a Saint. Last year, Roman Harper and Lance Moore did the whole "not taking a hometown discount" thing, and you see how that played out. Further, Colston has stated how fortunate he is for playing his entire career with Brees; that should be a good insight into his motivations this offseason.

The likelihood, though, is that Colston will negotiate freely with other teams this offseason. Don Banks of SI.com recently pointed out that Colston is "one of the best receiving options to come available in free agency in a long time." If some competitive team makes a huge offer to Colston, all bets are off.

Unlike Nicks, Colston's contract situation seems less tied to Brees' contract. I don't foresee the front office tagging Colston even if Brees' deal gets done, so that means he'll be a free agent regardless. It's almost certain that the Saints won't be able to pay Colston as much as several other teams will; but if they can provide a market-competitive rate, I don't see Colston leaving.

So where does this leave us? Basically right where we were two years ago. Two years ago. Nothing will happen until Brees' contract is worked out. There's about a week or so left before all hell breaks loose.

As Saints' fans like to say, make it happen Loomis.

Divisional Playoff Rear View: Saints at 49ers

2012-01-15T11:31:00.015-06:00

Final Score: 49ers 36, Saints 32
Record: 14-4
Complete Box Score

Yards Gained: 472
Yards Allowed: 407
Yards/play: 5.9
Yards/play allowed: 5.9

Turnover Differential: -4   [+1, -5]
First Down Differential: +9   [+26, -17]
Sack Differential: -1   [+4, -5]
Time of Possession Differential: +2:20

3rd Down Conversion: 36%, 5/14
Opponent's 3rd Down Conversion: 27%, 4/15

2011 Aggregate Postseason Point Differential: +13
Average Postseason PPG: 38.5
Opponent's Average Postseason PPG: 32.0

THE GOOD

* As hollow as it might seem in the immediate aftermath, let's be thankful for a record-setting season from the Saints. Brees. Sproles. Graham.

And the greatest offensive machine the NFL has ever seen.

To watch this team perform week after week was a privilege, and to see them defiantly fight back from a 17-point, first-quarter deficit was a microcosm of this team's heart, will, and skill set. That the season came crashing down in such a staggering and heartbreaking fashion shouldn't detract from the historically great season this offense just unveiled, the likes of which may never be seen again.

* In the same vein, this Saints' roster was likely the greatest and deepest we'll see for several years. Due to expiring contracts and a shortened offseason that allowed unique one-year free agent deals, the Saints assembled a collection of talent this season that they'll likely not be able to replicate in the near future.

This offseason, these Saints are all due for new contracts: Brees, Nicks, Colston, Porter, Meachem, Rogers, Franklin. And that's just off the top of my head. It will be difficult, if not impossible, for the front office to keep all of these players on the roster heading into 2012. Let's be grateful for this incarnation of a roster that, while falling devastatingly short of its championship aspirations, represented the most-talented roster in Saints' history.

* As for the game itself, I'd like to specifically point out Roman Harper's contribution against the 49ers.

Limited all week in practice with a lingering ankle injury, Harper played a fantastic game, recording 8 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 2 QB hits, and 1 pass defended.

Harper was all over the field, displaying his trademarked, attacking style and reminding the skeptics that he's indeed one of the best in-the-box strong safeties in the league today. Had it not been for Harper, the Saints would have very likely been in an unrecoverable hole early in the game.

* In the last note of "good' for the season, I'd like to thank the handful of you who followed this blogging venture during the season. I undertoook this project because I felt the Saints had an excellent shot at winning the Super Bowl, and I wanted to document the season in detail.

It didn't quite unfold in the manner I forecast, but it has been fun nonetheless. I hope you enjoyed it as well.

THE BAD

* The culmination of the Saints' first drive was a near kill-shot for the team's hopes.

The Saints took the opening kickoff and methodically and surgically moved down the field, signaling to the 49ers' defense that they were potentially in for a long day.

The Saints held the ball for 13 clock-churning plays that initiated a strategy of dispiriting the Niners' defense and forcing its offense to play from behind. But alas, that didn't come to fruition when Pierre Thomas was blasted at the two-yard line and fumbled. Not only did the 49ers take possession, but the Saints came up empty on the impressive drive and further lost Pierre Thomas--fresh off his best game as a pro--for the duration of the game.

What's worse is that when PT went out of the game, the Saints were down to two healthy RBs in Sproles and Ivory. Consequently, Coach Payton made the reasonable decision to remove Sproles from returning kickoffs in an effort to ensure his health for the remainder of the game.

As a result, a clearly rusty and overwhelmed Courtney Roby stepped in to return kicks and promptly fumbled a kickoff; even worse, he muffed the kickoff, scooped it up, tried to run, then fumbled again, giving the 49ers possession at the Saints' 13 yard-line. A disastrous sequence. The 49ers turned that fumble into 3 points.

The entire turn of events from Pierre Thomas' fumble/injury generated, at the very bare minimum, a six-point swing in the 49ers' favor. And this doesn't remotely account for the impact of PT's removal from the Saints' offense for the day, nor does it measure the impact of allowing the 49ers' offense to play with the lead for the majority of the game.

Finally, though the referees "correctly" ruled that Donte Whitner's vicious helmet-to-helmet hit on PT was legal, it illustrates a stark hypocrisy in the league's new-fangled player protection strategy.

In a day and age when hitting the QB is virtually impossible without penalty, and WRs are protected to the point of absurdity, it's still legal for a defensive player to recklessly and violently launch his helmet into that of a RB who's carrying the ball. Really? How is there any consistency in that policy? And how is that not more dangerous than any other action? How does any sane person who's watching that play think that's not a penalty in light of the overarching regulations now aimed at protecting players from sustaining head injuries?

THE UGLY
* Saturday was yet another spectacularly painful defensive performance in consecutive road playoff games. In two straight postseason road losses, the Saints' defense has surrendered 41 and 36 points to offenses that would rightfully be considered mediocre, at best.

While the banal, bludgeoned-to-death, conventional wisdom has suggested that the Saints are a worse offense on the road, I think it's the defense that more logically fits into that category. Without playing in the boisterous, advantageous confines of the Superdome, the Saints' defense has--under Gregg Williams--fairly consistently proven incapable of holding up its end of the bargain over the past two seasons. And on Saturday, it failed to do so in the biggest of games.

And before anyone starts pointing out that the Saints played good defense for the majority of the game, let me declare that it's entirely moot when your offense twice gives you a lead to protect inside of 4 minutes, and both times you fail miserably and subsequently lose the game. 56 minutes count for jack shit if you can't close the deal.

How is that possible? And how did Gregg Williams not learn his lessons from the games in Atlanta and in Tennessee when the Saints' defense inexplicably allowed multiple late-game, big-play, long drives while the Saints tried to protect a lead?

Did he not learn anything from Harry Douglas and Nate Washington running free down the middle of the field for huge chunks of yardage when all the Saints needed to do was just keep the ball in front of them in order to protect a victory that was virtually guaranteed? Why is that so difficult to do?

How could he allow that to happen yet again? Twice in four minutes. Twice.

This was the coup-de-grace for Willams who just couldn't help himself, who just couldn't shelve his preening bravado, who wouldn't trade his alpha-male machismo for objective, sound strategy even for a few minutes. After all the lessons learned the past two seasons, Williams just wouldn't budge from his stubborn adherence to his painfully tragic, flawed methodology. What a fucking waste. A. Fucking. Waste.

After the week 14 game at Tennessee, about the defense I wrote:

"These same shortcomings coalesced into one ugly defensive performance last year against Seattle in the playoffs. You remember that, don't you? Well the problems linger.

Without a remedy for these fundamental ailments, the Saints face the prospect of falling victim to a similar, painful postseason fate this year."

If I could see it, why couldn't Gregg Williams? Did he even care?

* What's more disheartening about this Saints' defeat is the opportunity lost in the much-bandied about championship window, as insightfully pointed out here. These are the harsh realities of high expectation, and championship windows are only open for so long. Missing the opportunity to win the Super Bowl during the best season Brees will ever have, with the best Saints' roster the Saints will surely have under Payton, is dispiriting to the extreme.

It was all there for these Saints.

It was a chance to establish a dynasty, yet it slipped by. How many more viable opportunities will the Saints have again? Nothing is guaranteed in life, and though the future still holds promise, missing this present opportunity will surely be the professional regret-of-a-lifetime for many of these Saints' players.

* 5 turnovers. You'd think by now the Saints would be past this kind of implosion. And of course, you'd be wrong. Sadly enough, the implosion came under the worst of possible circumstances.

I did some research into teams who have turned the ball over 5+ times since the merger (1970). Since then, teams that have turned it over 5 times or more have a 12.6% chance of winning.

And in the playoffs, it's even harder because the level of competition is of greater caliber. Teams surrendering the ball 5+ times in the postseason win only 11.3% of the time.

Unfortunately, the Saints dug themselves a hole they were incapable of escaping from. Bucking the odds isn't quite as easy as we make it out to be sometimes.

* The last note of "ugly" on the season is remorsefully reserved for Malcolm Jenkins. Let me make clear that Jenkins has been one of my favorite players, and this article I wrote on him has, by far, received more hits than any other Saints' post I've penned.

But regardless, it seems reasonable at this point to question Jenkins' long-term viability as a free safety. Don't forget, Jenkins played 17 games this season and recorded not one interception. A travesty. A week after continually failing to even moderately slow down the monster that is Calvin Johnson, Jenkins played a downright awful game against the 49ers.

Let's look at 4 plays. 1) Vernon Davis' 49-yard first quarter TD: Jenkins clumsily comes flying forward, spazzes out, knocks down Roman Harper, and allows an easy TD for the 49ers. Jenkins' top priority as the Saints' free safety is to simply prevent big plays, which is why he lines up so far behind the line of scrimmage.

What's equally bad is that the 49ers came into the game ranked 29th in red zone offense. It was vital to the Saints' chances of victory to prevent the 49ers from scoring easy TDs, yet Jenkins allowed just this to happen right off the bat.

2) On Frank Gore's 42 yard run in the 4th quarter, Jenkins took a terrible angle and completely whiffed on Gore, allowing him to rumble downfield. This set up a FG and was the start of the 49ers' 16-point explosion in the 4th quarter.

3) With the Saints leading with a bit more than 3 minutes remaining, Jenkins allowed Vernon Davis to burn him down the left sideline for 37 crucial yards on 2nd and 10. This soon after led to an Alex Smith TD that would give the lead back to the 49ers. This was yet another big play that contributed to the defensive meltdown.

The fact that Jenkins is a converted CB who was covering a TE, and continually surrendered chunks of yardage the entire game, is just an abomination.

4) As if all of that wasn't enough, Jenkins did it once more. On the 49ers' game-winning drive, Davis again got past Jenkins with 40 seconds left for 47 back-breaking yards. Jenkins, yet again, took another terrible angle and mind-bogglingly played underneath Davis when his chief goal was to not surrender another big play.

While some of the onus here rightfully falls on Gregg Williams for leaving his secondary in a vulnerable position, it's still wholly unacceptable that Jenkins put himself into such a poor position at the most critical time. What a disappointment.

Worth Repeating
* "It's always difficult to absorb defeat. That was a hard fought, disappointing end to a great season. But I'm still proud of my team." - Will Smith

Wild Card Rear View: Lions at Saints

2012-01-10T07:56:00.001-06:00

Final Score: Saints 45, Lions 28
Record: 14-3
Complete Box Score

Yards Gained: 626
Yards Allowed: 412
Yards/play: 7.7
Yards/play allowed: 7.7

Turnover Differential: 0   [+2, -2],
First Down Differential: +12   [+34, -22]
Sack Differential: -2   [+0, -2]
Time of Possession Differential: +13:36

3rd Down Conversion: 64%, 7/11
Opponent's 3rd Down Conversion: 70%, 7/10

2011 Aggregate Postseason Point Differential: +17
Average Postseason PPG: 45.0
Opponent's Average Postseason PPG: 28.0

The Good

* Another week, yet another dominant offensive thrashing of a completely overmatched opponent.

How else do you explain a game where--in one half--the Saints sustained two self-inflicted wounds and piddled around the field defensively, yet ran the Lions out of the Dome with one of the most entertaining halves of football in recent memory?

Even after the slow start, the Saints mercifully killed the clock instead of putting a 50-spot on the scoreboard. They didn't punt. They ran a stupendous 81 plays on offense. They possessed the ball for almost 38 minutes. And yeah, you know, they set a few more league records in the process: most yards in a playoff game; most yards by a QB in a regulation playoff game.

In two consecutive games, the Saints have registered an unfathomable 1,242 yards and 90 points. Go back and read that again. It's popular sentiment to compare the Saints' offensive numbers to those generated in video games. But is it even this easy in a video game?

The Saints have taken scorched-earth and made it their modus operandi, while opponent after opponent has feebly crumbled in their wake. Burn motherf**cker burn.

One of my favorite developments of the season was seeing the Saints continue going for it on 4th down against the Lions. 7 for 11 on 3rd down, 3 for 4 on 4th down (3 for 3 really, because they knelt on a 4th down to kill the clock).

Now that's how you break a team's spirit.

And why should the Saints even consider punting these days except in the most extreme circumstances? Nobody has proven capable of stopping them.

And no, I'm not embellishing.

There are examples of highly successful coaching philosophies that eschew punting in almost all circumstances. The Saints were #1 in 3rd down conversion percentage this season by an extremely wide margin (57% to 48% for #2 San Diego).

I read a note yesterday that indicated the Saints were better on 3rd and 10 this season than any other team was on 3rd down altogether.

That is a jarring stat and a telling indicator of just how difficult, if not impossible, it is to stop this offense.

If that's true, why should they punt?

* Jabari Greer's two second-half interceptions extinguished any chances the Lions had of keeping pace.

Though the Saints finished 31st in the league in takeaways, the defense has gotten materially better at forcing turnovers in the past two months.

Generating turnovers is among the top postseason priorities because, with an offense like this, there's very little room for error for the other team. The Saints' defense has chipped away at the dam, and perhaps the floodgates will open up this week in San Francisco.

If the Saints' defense can find a timely turnover or two, it's hard to imagine this team losing again this season.

The Bad
* How about the fact that Roman Harper and Malcolm Jenkins have played 17 games this season (well, 16 for Jenkins) and have no interceptions? None. Really? Two starting safeties, zero interceptions. That is a travesty, especially when you consider how often teams are throwing the ball against the Saints. How is this even possible?

And not only did Harper and Jenkins fail again to intercept a pass on Saturday night, they were largely bystanders to Calvin Johnson's a capella performance.

Simply put, both safeties have to do better this week.

* Two first half fumbles allowed the Lions to take a four-point lead into halftime, limiting the Saints offensively. Shockingly, the Lions converted neither fumble recovery into points. Had they done so, the scope of the second half would have been vastly different.

As has been noted ad infinitum, the Saints are undefeated under Payton when they don't turn the ball over. The Saints lost only six fumbles all season; now would NOT be the time to lose the emphasis on protecting the ball.

* The Saints' pass rush continues to mystify me.

In a game where the Lions essentially didn't even try to run the ball, the Saints didn't sack Matt Stafford once.

Couple that with the fact that the Lions were in an exceptionally loud, extremely hostile environment, yet the Saints' defense produced a minimal amount of pressure.

I continue to hold out hope that Junior Gallette and Martez Wilson can make a difference in this area. Will Smith's best days as a pass-rushing presence are behind him, and Cam Jordan has yet to show much promise in this area.

At this point, I guess, it is what it is. A pass rush that struggles towards mediocrity.

The Ugly
* There's nothing much ugly about these Saints, and I don't want to make something up to fill this section.

Worth Repeating
* "We play aggressive. We're not going to apologize for that. We're not going to pull the reins back. It's pedal to the metal." - Drew Brees

photos courtesy of Yahoo! Sports

Week 17 Rear View: Panthers at Saints

2012-01-02T08:19:00.007-06:00

To reiterate, every week during the season I'll be posting a summary of the Saints' game, complete with key stats and a "Good, Bad, Ugly" performance review. If you have ideas or feedback, please feel free to submit those to me via blog comment, Twitter, Facebook, email, text, message in a bottle or whatever floats your proverbial boat.

Also, at four-week intervals, we'll see how the Saints rank league-wide in some important statistical categories.

Final Score: Saints 45, Panthers 17
Record: 13-3
Complete Box Score

Yards Gained: 617
Yards Allowed: 301
Yards/play: 8.5
Yards/play allowed: 5.9

Turnover Differential: +1   [+2, -1], (-3)
First Down Differential: +12   [+33, -21], (+88)
Sack Differential: +2   [+2, -0], (+5)
Time of Possession Differential: +8:34   (+57:22)

3rd Down Conversion: 67%, 6/9 (57%, 118/208)
Opponent's 3rd Down Conversion: 0%, 0/5   (33%, 67/202)

2011 Aggregate Point Differential: +208
Average PPG: 34.0
Opponent's Average PPG: 21.2

* as always, numbers in brackets [x] represent game totals, while numbers in parentheses (y) represent season totals.

The Good

* 617 yards. And a defiant postscript to a season of utter offensive dominance.

In a game where resting starters and playing second-stringers was a viable option, Coach Payton made good on his promise that the team would finish strong. In winning its first week 17 game under Payton, the Saints set a franchise record for most yards in a game (617), averaged an obscene 8.5 yards per play and obliterated the NFL's single-season yardage record.

Racking up an ungodly 7474 yards this season, the Saints' offense vaulted past the 2000 Rams who previously held the mark with 7075 yards. That equates to averaging 467 yards per game, with these gems mixed in: 617 vs the Panthers; 577 vs the Giants; 573 vs the Vikings; and 557 vs the Colts.

The unprecedented display of both offensive firepower and socialized distribution has produced a team with astonishing diversity: seven players with more than 30 receptions and 12 players with an offensive TD.

In their last 8 games, all wins, the Saints outscored their opponents by an average of 35.9 to 18.8. That's an average margin of victory of 17.1 points. Further, since their week 11 bye, the Saints have outscored opponents 39.0 to 18.5 (20.5 margin). Finally, in their final three games, the Saints have eviscerated foes to the tune of 44.0 to 17.6 (margin 26.4).

The trend? The Saints have continued to improve as the season has unfolded. Be afraid, NFL. Be very afraid.

While some may view the week 8 loss to the Rams--and the resulting inability to secure a bye--as a potential deathblow for the Saints' postseason chances, I view it in another light. Maybe the shock and embarrassment of losing to two of the league's worst teams (Bucs, Rams) in the first eight weeks shook these Saints from the doldrums of apathy and incited in them a raging championship fire that shows no sign of extinguishing anytime soon.

* How great is this offensive line?

Since that week 8 nadir against St. Louis when Brees was pummeled to the tune of 6 sacks (and 9 hits) and the rushing attack produced just 56 yards, the offensive line has been the league's best in both pass protection and run blocking.

On Sunday, the Saints logged their third 200-yard rushing day this season, with Chris Ivory registering the first 100-yard game by a Saints' RB this season (129). And Brees was neither hit nor sacked.

The Saints' offensive line was impactful to the point of saving the team four first-half points. Jermon Bushrod ran down RJ Stanford after Stanford intercepted Brees and seemed destined to score a TD. Bushrod stayed with the play, shoved Stanford out of bounds, and the Panthers ended up kicking a FG on the possession. Little plays like that separate the great teams from the good ones. And on Sunday, the Saints reminded everyone, once again, that they are indeed a great team and maybe even the league's greatest.

* The Saints' young defensive players made an affirmative statement on Sunday, with Patrick Robinson, Cam Jordan, and Martez Wilson all playing great games.

Robinson has been up and down this season but when he plays well, he looks like an all pro. And his size and athleticism allow him to play both physically and dynamically. When the performance variance gives way to consistency, Robinson is going to be an excellent player.

Cam Jordan played--to my eye--his best game of the season against the Panthers. He finally generated consistent pressure on the quarterback, and registered his first sack while having another one taken away due to an awful, Hochulian bungled horsecollar penalty.

While Jordan has played well in run defense this year, his inability to rush the QB has been a concern. But on Sunday, he took a step forward in his development by playing with what seemed to be a high level of intensity and relentlessness.

But of all the Saints' young defensive players, none is more promising than Martez Wilson.

Against the Panthers, Wilson registered a sack, a QB hit and a tackle for loss. In sacking Cam Newton, Wilson unleashed all of his massive skills, blasting through the line, laying waste to the defenders in his path, and enveloping the QB in a dervish of speed and power.

More please.

Wilson has been on the field increasingly more as the season has progressed and as he, presumably, has better mastered the playbook.

When you combine the efforts of the three aforementioned players with other young, defensive players like Junior Galette, Ramon Humber, and Isa Abdul Quddus--not to mention Malcolm Jenkins and Tracy Porter--you have a young defense whose future is bright.

* By all means, keep on doubling Jimmy Graham. Marques Colston can dismantle your defense just as effectively. Colston yet again played a spectacular game, making an impossibly difficult, contorted TD catch before then burning the Panthers for a back-breaking TD just seconds before the first half ended.

In his last twelve games, Colston has been one of the league's very best WRs. During that timeframe, he's amassed 73 receptions for 1054 yards and 8 TDs. Within the framework of the Saints' everyman distribution model, those numbers are all the more impressive.

The Bad
* One of the more enjoyable aspects of these past 8 weeks is the difficulty I've had finding things to complain about. The one note of "bad," and one that's not particularly attributable to anything or anyone is the Saints missing out on a bye after going 13-3.

I mean, that never happens. But it did this year, and the Saints will have to battle through it. We've seen repeatedly in the recent past teams go on the road and win their conference and then the Super Bowl (Giants '07, Steelers '08, Packers '10).

There's no reason to think these Saints can't do the same thing.

The Ugly

* Nothing of note, really. Besides Steve Smith's insanity.

This dude needs help. We're talking about a guy who has been disciplined twice in his career for assaulting his own teammates. Like literally whipping their asses.

On Sunday, Smith repeatedly and maniacally screamed at the Saints' sideline, and at least once in the face of Gregg Williams and once in the face of Sean Payton.

Give it a rest already before you go all Rae Carruth on somebody.

Worth Repeating
* "I am not focused on records. I am focused on getting a ring." - Jimmy Graham

photos courtesy of Yahoo! Sports

Drew Brees: The Fallacy of Intangibles

2011-12-29T09:55:00.003-06:00

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign: that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."

- Jonathan Swift

Though this famed quote straddles cliche at this point, it seems partly relevant to Drew Brees and especially relevant to the city of New Orleans thanks to John Kennedy Toole.

After spending several days (years, really) consuming opinions, analyses, and profiles of Drew Brees, I was struck by the pervasive, often underlying, notion that Drew Brees has "overachieved" in his professional career and, by extension, is not regarded with the same canonical reverence bestowed upon some of his peers.

The word most frequently trotted out in reference to Brees is "intangibles." Those measuring Brees by his intangibles generally intimate that those qualities are to credit for his successes, not his physical skills or athletic pedigree. It's oversimplified and flawed.

So let me point out the wholly erroneous notion and general fallacy of this "intangible" business. What does it even mean? "It's his intangibles, Boomer." And why does it seem to be universally agreed upon with head-nodding approval as an explanation for Brees' success?

Even in an article as poignant and excellent as this one, the author refers to Brees' intangible qualities as a qualifying indicator of his greatness that remains some unsolvable mystery. And really, this is the conventional wisdom regarding Brees.

But Coach Payton has repeatedly called Brees the best athlete on his team, even to the hyper-specificity of referring to Brees as an "elite foot athlete." But too often, it's not about Brees' athleticism in concert with his other attributes. It's instead always narrow, vague, or mislabeled.

And why are leadership, work ethic, competitveness, composure, high character, and exceptional IQ considered "mystery" traits? Because traditional NFL scouts, talent evaluators, and media "experts" have been too simple-minded to assign them importance when judging the QB position? Because they have difficulty defining those traits in simple, measurable terms?

But because Brees' talents are so great, so varied, and unquestionably unique, he gets overlooked, sold short, and condescendingly labeled as an "overachiever?" As if it were unthinkable that he was capable of this.

Do military leaders who choose generals to lead their armies see these same qualities as mysterious, undefinable, and veiled? Of course not. Why? Because they place importance on them. You generally won't find something you don't look for.

They are--instead--tangible qualities, readily accessible and definable. And they're of much greater importance than being able to throw a football 80 yards from your knees. Right Kyle Boller? Right Jamarcus Russell?

But the conventional belief systems of the established guard continue to stubbornly cling to oversimplified, dated "truths" while players like Brees have shifted the landscape and mocked the multitude of "geniuses" who know better. Isn't that right, Coach Saban? Still think Philip Rivers has a higher ceiling, AJ Smith?

If the national perception of Brees was rooted in the traditionalism of the 6'5, white, strong-armed QB with limited mobility that was hitherto "Andrew Lucked" for his entire life, Brees would likely be on his way to winning his 4th MVP.

Instead, he'll probably get bypassed again this year when he's again deserving. And what's worse is the idle chatter that the passing record--should Brees in fact hold it after season's end--be potentially asterisked in some way.

Brian Burke of Advanced NFL Stats eloquently and succinctly debunked that ridiculous position when he said "the notion that the 1984 record was somehow pure or true, and the 2011 record is tainted due to rule changes is myopic in the extreme." Read that again. Myopic in the extreme.

But regardless, the skepticism remains. It's a continuation of the same absurd logic that has perpetuated the belief that Brees just shouldn't be as good as he in fact is. I mean, there's no way he could set the record without rules being altered in his favor. The pundits can't fathom it, so surely there must be an explanation to validate the gaping flaws in their judgments.

I'm sorry, but I can't imagine that these same nonsensical platitudes would be lobbed the way of Peyton Manning or Tom Brady if they were in Brees' shoes today. And why? Because they're taller? As silly as that sounds, it seems to be the prevailing, though perhaps subconscious, logic.

Manning and Brady have won four of the past five MVP awards, yet neither one of them maintains the same resume that Brees has compiled in the past 6 seasons.

Over that span, Brees leads the league in yards, TDs, and completion %; became the only QB in NFL history to twice throw for 5000+ yards in a season; set a league record for completion % in a season; won a Super Bowl; and won a Super Bowl MVP. No other QB in the league can boast that impeccable resume.

Yet continually, Brees is relegated to second fiddle. To wit, Drew Brees has yet to win the league MVP even though he's been the league's best player over the past 6 seasons. How does that happen without an underlying, flawed belief among a portion of the cognoscenti that Brees is just not as good as the other good players?

Because the "experts" can't fully comprehend the breadth and scope of Brees' greatness, they have--in a way--subordinated him.

And if it happens again this year, and Brees is bypassed for the MVP by Aaron Rodgers, then let's just hope for a repeat of the 2009 MVP/Super Bowl MVP dynamic.

Maybe then, the second-guessers and skeptics will give Drew Brees his proper due for being one of the best to ever play.

Week 16 Rear View: Falcons at Saints

2011-12-27T17:23:00.002-06:00

To reiterate, every week during the season I'll be posting a summary of the Saints' game, complete with key stats and a "Good, Bad, Ugly" performance review. If you have ideas or feedback, please feel free to submit those to me via blog comment, Twitter, Facebook, email, text, message in a bottle or whatever floats your proverbial boat.

Also, at four-week intervals, we'll see how the Saints rank league-wide in some important statistical categories.

Final Score: Saints 45, Falcons 16
Record: 12-3
Complete Box Score

Yards Gained: 463
Yards Allowed: 469
Yards/play: 7.3
Yards/play allowed: 6.3

Turnover Differential: -1   [+1, -2], (-4)
First Down Differential: +3   [+26, -23], (+76)
Sack Differential: -1   [+0, -1], (+3)
Time of Possession Differential: -6:19   (+48:48)

3rd Down Conversion: 77%, 10/13 (56%, 112/199)
Opponent's 3rd Down Conversion: 47%, 8/17   (34%, 67/197)

2011 Aggregate Point Differential: +180
Average PPG: 33.5
Opponent's Average PPG: 21.5

* as always, numbers in brackets [x] represent game totals, while numbers in parentheses (y) represent season totals.

The Good

* Another historic night in the Superdome further validated the Saints' franchise ascension among the elite in the modern era of NFL football.

While the Saints were winning their 3rd NFC South title in Payton's six seasons as coach, Drew Brees was not only breaking the record for most passing yards in a season, but he was also becoming the first QB in NFL history to post two 5000+ yard seasons.

Combined with dismantling the hapless Falcons, the night couldn't have been much better for Saints' fans.

When you consider the key components of the Saints--their coach and their QB--you continually come to the conclusion that each individual is arguably the best in the world at his specific vocation, and that the Saints are fortunate for the perfect melding of events that has allowed greatness to continually transpire in New Orleans.

What's further promising is that there's more to come. Dream on.

* The defense once again handled its business, forcing the Falcons to trade FGs for TDs.

Additionally, Malcolm Jenkins put himself in an opportune spot to score a TD that hearkened memories of glorious days past.

The defense has held strong over the past 7 weeks, limiting opponents to 19 points per game. Against teams with highly-capable offenses (Giants, Lions, Falcons twice) the defense has been all the more impressive.

In particular, Junior Galette stood out last night and appears to be the Saints' best pash-rusher at this point in the season. If he can continue to emerge, the Saints' pass-rushing woes might just be a thing of the past right in time for the playoffs.

* After week 12, I pondered whether the Saints had the best rushing attack in the league. Through week 16, the Saints certainly look they're still in the conversation, ranking 5th in yards per carry and 9th in yards per game.

Against the Falcons, the Saints quietly churned out 164 yards on the ground (7.1 per) by distributing the ball among their RBs.

If you delve into the advanced metrics at Football Outsiders or Advanced NFL Stats, you'll also find that the Saints' ground game is ranked among the top-5 over a few different categories.

While Sean Payton is renowned for his progressive passing attack (and rightfully so), the implementation of the "three-headed" rushing attack is another offensive design he has pioneered to near perfection starting in 2009.

It's a testament to both Payton's adaptability and innovation.

The Bad
* What is this chorus of woe echoing from Atlanta? Are grown men who get paid millions of dollars per year to play defense actually whining about their inability to accomplish the very task they're paid so handsomely to do?

What the hell kind of bizarro world are we living in?

* And Pete Prisco, who nobody is ever going to confuse for David Halberstam, continued his embarrassing carnival-barking campaign by calling the Saints "classless" for trying to attain the passing record last night. Mind you, this was soon after Prisco called for the Falcons to "take out" Brees and then reinforced that absurd notion saying that hurting Brees would be "worth" the penalty and the fine.

So let me get this straight, Peter. It's classless for the Saints to set a record, yet it's reasonable for you to advocate for an injury to a player. Are you ****ing stupid? Wait, I think we know the answer already.

Maybe you should study up on the meaning of the word "hypocrisy" before you continue on your pathetic little quest to remain relevant in a world that's not fooled by your ignorant, serial, self-promotional charade.

The Ugly
* Are you listening, Jeff Duncan? Because I'm talking to you too. You spinelessly come to your colleague's rescue instead of rightfully denouncing him?

And even if you didn't have the fortitude to chastise Prisco for his idiocy last night, you certainly shouldn't have pendantically head-patted Saints' fans who were righfully enraged by Prisco's statements.

Why should Saints' fans back off of Prisco? And why should you deign to instruct others from being indignant?

Again, what the hell kind of bizarro world are we living in?

Worth Repeating
* "You go with your gut. I thought it was the right decision last night. This morning, I thought it was clearly the right decision." - Sean Payton

*photos courtesy of Yahoo! Sports

The Evolution of a Rivalry

2011-12-22T09:12:00.006-06:00

The first time I can really remember feeling palpable disdain for the Atlanta Falcons was in late 1991.

By this time in my life, I fancied myself a seasoned football acolyte and a full-fledged Who Dat wholly engaged in the Saints' first winning regime under Jim Mora.

While hitherto in the mid '80s I technically understood the 'assignment' of rivalry with Atlanta, I never felt fully emotionally invested in it until the Saints were bounced from the playoffs by a team that I--at that specific time--perceived as a weak, lucky-to-be-there underling.

Pat Swilling was the defensive player of the year. The Saints had enjoyed one of their finer seasons, finally supplanting the Montana-led 49ers in the geographically-liberal NFC West. And the Superdome was home to a wild card game against the Falcons that would surely set the stage for the Saints' first run at a Super Bowl.

At the time, it seemed very possible with the league's best defense and all.

But then the Falcons came into the Dome and put an end to all that hope. Killers of dreams, those Falcons. When you're 16 years old, that kind of stuff leaves a mark, as silly as it might seem.

Not only did it hurt to realize that postseason glory would again evade the tenuous grasp of the Saints' franchise, but to have it come at the hands of the Falcons? After the Saints had finally conquered the 49ers in the division? And in the Dome?

It was our turn, not Atlanta's.

From that day forward, the rivalry really meant something to me.

The Saints went on to lose ten in a row to Atlanta in the mid-to-late '90s, and the Falcons' appearance in the the Super Bowl after the '98 season further cemented the Falcons' dominance in the rivalry.

But then Eugene Robinson--he, the 1998 winner of the Bart Starr Award for "high moral character" on the eve of his team's Super Bowl appearance--moronically and comically sank any chance those Falcons had against the Elway-led Broncos when he got busted for trying to get a $40 blow job from some random hooker the night before the big game.

Not only was Robinson dumb, but he was cheap. Take that, Atlanta!

****************************************************************************************************************************

You have to understand that "hating" another team in the context of sports rivalries isn't the same kind of hate reserved for despots, rapists, Wall Street bankers, and the Jerry Sandusky's of the world. It's in the limits of language. It's more of a shorthand method for saying "f*ck you, I hope you lose, my wellbeing for the next week is almost completely dependent on the outcome of this game." It's not in wishing physical or long-lasting emotional harm upon someone.

Is it juvenile, myopic, and kind of weird? Of course it is. But then we wouldn't be Oxford-defined fanatics if this weren't the case. It does matter even though it probably shouldn't.

Would Saints' fans truly have wanted to play any other team on 9/25/06? Could it have been any more poetically righteous than to paste the Falcons on national TV post-Katrina? Why I think not.

These are the indelible brushstrokes on a masterfully-layered canvas of rivalry that continues to provide meaning. And these might have been the most beautiful strokes of all. It heightened the appreciation and perfection of the moment.

The Saints have now won 9 of the last 11 vs Atlanta in the modern era, with a shiny Lombardi trophy to boot. Atlanta with all its perceived superiorities--economically prosperous, classically Southern, geographically relevant--is feeling the full brunt of the rivalry's inferiority. Wouldn't you feel that way if the once $100-million-dollar face of your franchise went to federal prison for murdering puppies? That's gotta leave a mark.

I mean, the Falcons overreacted so badly after last year's postseason flameout as the #1 seed in the NFC that they essentially traded their entire draft for a WR. Panic much?

Would you be reassured by having an adult male with this haircut and accompanying to-catch-a-predator 'stache running your franchise? Or would you feel uneasy, insecure, and a little bit awkward? Can you see why it's so easy to ridicule the Falcons?

And now the Falcons come calling on Monday in the Superest of Domes with the Saints poised to clinch the division and Brees standing on the precipice of NFL history. Are you shitting me? The day after Christmas? On a nationally-televised Monday night game?

The only way this could be scripted any better is if the Saints win by 30 points and Matt Ryan is spotted crying on the sidelines. Now that would be proper.

I'd love to be all stoic and mature and dismissive about the importance of beating the Falcons. But I can't be, so I won't.

This is not business; it's personal.

That's just the way it is. That's why sports rivalries matter. Because they are personal. They're not rooted in cold, dispassionate transactionality. You don't have to like it or understand it. You just have to accept that's how it is.

On Monday night, it will be highly personal. And that's why we'll all be going crazy, having fun, and letting our hearts dangle on our sleeves. It couldn't be any other way.

This year, let's hope that Christmas comes a little late for Who Dats everywhere.

Week 15 Rear View: Saints at Vikings

2011-12-19T07:50:00.002-06:00

To reiterate, every week during the season I'll be posting a summary of the Saints' game, complete with key stats and a "Good, Bad, Ugly" performance review. If you have ideas or feedback, please feel free to submit those to me via blog comment, Twitter, Facebook, email, text, message in a bottle or whatever floats your proverbial boat.

Also, at four-week intervals, we'll see how the Saints rank league-wide in some important statistical categories.

Final Score: Saints 42, Vikings 20
Record: 11-3
Complete Box Score

Yards Gained: 573
Yards Allowed: 207
Yards/play: 7.3
Yards/play allowed: 3.8

Turnover Differential: -1   [+1, -2], (-3)
First Down Differential: +24   [+36, -12], (+73)
Sack Differential: +4   [+4, -0], (+4)
Time of Possession Differential: +18:49   (+55:07)

3rd Down Conversion: 73%, 8/11 (55%, 102/186)
Opponent's 3rd Down Conversion: 29%, 4/14   (33%, 59/180)

2011 Aggregate Point Differential: +151
Average PPG: 32.6
Opponent's Average PPG: 21.8

* as always, numbers in brackets [x] represent game totals, while numbers in parentheses (y) represent season totals.

The Good
* Will the Saints' offense finally get the recognition for greatness it's justly garnered this season?

Buried beneath the mounds of Packers' coverage and the sycophantish, fawning praise for Tim Tebow in the national media, this Saints' offense is quite probably the best offensive unit to grace an NFL field.

And before this week, it's received nary a mention outside of the Saints' immediate sphere of media influence.

The Saints stand just 682 yards shy of eclipsing the all-time yardage mark set by the '00 Rams (7075), and on Sunday the devastating potency and frightening diversity of the league's best offense was in its full, dominant glory.

In case you weren't paying attention, this was taking place in Minnesota and not in Kansas City.

The Saints--after starting slowly and playing the majority of the 4th quarter with Drew Brees standing on the sidelines--racked up 573 yards, possessed the ball for nearly 39 minutes, passed for 412 yards, and churned out 161 yards on the ground. And let's just remember: this is the NFL, not the Big 12.

For good measure, nine different players caught passes--four of them for 70 or more yards--while five different players scored a TD. Who says socialism can't work?

* Amazingly, Drew Brees continues to get better and Sunday's game was among the best games any QB has ever played, as evidenced by his first-time-in-NFL-history stat line: 400+ yards, 80% completions, 5 TDs, 0 INTs. Another week, another record. Records keep piling up and opponents continue to flail away trying to prevent them. Brees is unquestionably playing the QB position better than anyone in the league right now, and maybe better than anyone's ever played it.

Over the past five weeks, Brees has completed 72.5% of his passes; thrown 16 TDs and 0 INTs; and averaged 355 yards/game for a 125.1 rating. Enjoy it, folks. We are watching one of the best ever to play the position. That's increasingly more clear with each passing week.

Are you listening Mickey Loomis? Rita Leblanc? Tom Benson? You best pay that man his money.

* The Saints' running game continues to impress with its own layers of balance and continued, reliable efficiency. It's quietly become one of the league's best rushing attacks.

Pierre Thomas perfectly epitomizes this sense of balance and diversity and against the Vikings, his full set of skills was on display.

He gained 44 yards rushing (5.5 per), 41 yards receiving (20.5 per), and scored a TD.

Moreover, Thomas flashed his trademark tenacity and second effort, repeatedly breaking tackles and accruing yards after contact.

A great day for a player who represents so much of what the Saints stand for: selflessness, determination, intelligence, reliability, diversity of skill.

Additionally, Chris Ivory again filled in admirably for Mark Ingram, gaining 74 punishing yards (4.1 per) while continuing to make his case for a full-time spot on the weekly active roster. Coach Payton has quite the conundrum on his hands when Ingram returns to health; and though I might be alone on this, I continue to believe that Payton will activate all 4 RBs for each postseason game.

* With 232 all-purpose yards on Sunday, Darren Sproles, like many of his offensive brethren, is closing in on a record of his own. Sproles is 398 yards shy of the league record for all-purpose yards in one season (2690, Derrick Mason '00).

If Sproles can uncork a long return in one of these last two games, he'll have a great shot at the record. Interestingly enough, Michael "Beer Man" Lewis currently sits in 2nd place for most all-purpose yards in a season (2647, '02).

* Sunday's game was certainly the defense's best showing of the year, favorably responding to the challenge (threats?) posed by Gregg Williams last week.

The defense held the Vikings to a meager 3.8 yards per play and just 207 yards overall. That's the 3rd fewest yards allowed during Gregg Williams' tenure in New Orleans, and the defense continues to improve late in the season.

Once again, the defense played excellent on 3rd down, limiting the Vikings to just 29% of their 14 opportunities.

More importantly, they deftly handled the adversity of being saddled with short fields early in the game, limiting the Vikings to two FGs and one TD after the offense turned the ball over twice and the special teams failed to recover a brilliant onsides kick.

Finally, the defense generated pressure and notched 4 sacks.

Yesterday's game seemed to be the defense's best effort this season from a pass-rush perspective, and if the Saints have designs on beating the Packers in Green Bay, it's incumbent upon them to generate a modicum of a pass rush from their defensive line.

Sunday's effort was a step in the right direction.

The Bad

* The Saints started slowly and carelessly turned the ball over twice early in the game.

Giving the hapless Vikings an early opportunity to believe they might win the game was a formula for a Vikings' victory, and the Saints provided them just that.

As LT Jermon Bushrod noted in a postgame interview, without those early stops by the defense, this game "would've been a completely different beast."

The Ugly
* Nothing much besides Jared Allen's mullet.

Worth Repeating
* "This offense is just awesome." FOX analyst John Lynch, midway through the 3rd quarter.

photos courtesy of Yahoo! Sports

The Realities of Super Bowl Glory

2011-12-15T11:20:00.005-06:00

I'm going to get ahead of myself in these next 600 words.

If you prefer to focus on the present, to focus on the pending "trap" or "letdown" game that looms this weekend in Minnesota, then go right ahead. But I don't want to think anymore about how this weekend's game has all the classic elements of a letdown. Instead, I want to speculate.

I'm going to (ahem) ponder the end-game: winning the Super Bowl. Will the Saints do it again this season?

The current state of Saints' football is one of expected excellence: from players, coaches, executives, and fans.

While in the not-too-distant past, the prospect of a 10-win season and a playoff berth would be cause for mass celebration (like most everything else in New Orleans), this year's securing of a postseason invitation was met mostly by muted cheers and an air of inevitability.

Why? Because Saints' football has finally risen to the level that dictates that winning the big prize is all that counts. At least it's started to feel that way among an increasingly larger swath of the fan base. Four playoff trips in six seasons? Yawn. Two NFC Championship Games in five seasons? Standard.

But another Super Bowl win? Well, the Saints need another one if for nothing more than to validate the ever-prominent, deep-rooted belief that the Saints 2.0 are the NFL's best franchise, that they are in the dynastic throes of NFL history, and that in this golden age of football in south Louisiana, that greatness and immortality will be judged by championships only. Moral victories are a bit passe, no?

So while sentiment and expectation have wildly shifted the notions of success, consistent on-field production and winning results have been the fundaments for such aggrandized, lofty goals. Having an all-time great at QB in the midst of one of the greatest six-year stretches a QB has ever produced also forcefully contributes to the notion. Why think otherwise?

And what's most settling is that it's firmly rooted in reality. It's no longer a delusion. The Saints are in fact positioned to win another Super Bowl this year, whether they blow this game against Minnesota or not.

Of course, if you ask the all-knowing pundits and media experts, it's fait accompli that the Packers will waltz uncontested to a second consecutive Lombardi trophy. And if you listen not-so-closely, you'll hear the rattlings of "historic greatness" and "best of all time" bandied about in almost every Packers' conversation.

And guess what? At this point, maybe deservedly so. But it's a bit premature. And dismissive. Do you think that this Saints team, given an opportunity against Green Bay in the postseason, is just going to roll over and die? That they're just going to concede to some presupposed fate? That they're incapable of winning?

Nonsense. This seems like a team motivated by unfinished business.

In case you haven't noticed, this is not a group of individuals easily deterred. Instead, it's a team with the striking qualities and champion's demeanor of its quarterback: determined, prepared, confident, composed, and highly-skilled.

In the NFL, the meek don't inherit shit.

When I look at the current embodiment of the Saints, I see a better, more complete group than the '09 team. I see a team with a proven belief system--now innate and complete--that espouses a yeoman's work ethic and a champion's heart. I see a team with an indefatigable, beaming focus. I see a team fully capable of winning the Super Bowl, and just as good as any other team in the NFL. I see the lore of a champion's tale being told.

Call me crazy, call me blinded by loyalties, call me irrational, call me incapable of objectivity. Those things are all true. But those qualities of mine don't undermine the plausibility of the premise.

There are roughly two months left in the NFL season. Will the Saints ascend Lombardi's mountain and reach its summit again? Here's an affirmative nod for once again looking down from that champion's peak.

Week 14 Rear View: Saints at Titans

2011-12-12T07:36:00.002-06:00

To reiterate, every week during the season I'll be posting a summary of the Saints' game, complete with key stats and a "Good, Bad, Ugly" performance review. If you have ideas or feedback, please feel free to submit those to me via blog comment, Twitter, Facebook, email, text, message in a bottle or whatever floats your proverbial boat.

Also, at four-week intervals, we'll see how the Saints rank league-wide in some important statistical categories.

Final Score: Saints 22, Titans 17
Record: 10-3
Complete Box Score

Yards Gained: 437
Yards Allowed: 373
Yards/play: 5.8
Yards/play allowed: 6.8

Turnover Differential: 0   [+0, -0], (-2)
First Down Differential: +7   [+24, -17], (+49)
Sack Differential: 0   [+2, -2], (0)
Time of Possession Differential: +15:27   (+36:18)

3rd Down Conversion: 58%, 11/19  (54%, 94/175)
Opponent's 3rd Down Conversion: 10%, 1/10   (33%, 55/166)

2011 Aggregate Point Differential: +129
Average PPG: 31.9
Opponent's Average PPG: 22.0

* as always, numbers in brackets [x] represent game totals, while numbers in parentheses (y) represent season totals.

The Good
* Is there a player in the NFL more criminally-underrated than Marques Colston? During the offseason, I examined whether Colston should be considered among the elite at his position, even though he's virtually never mentioned as such. On Sunday, Colston again proved that when called upon, he's as good as it gets.

After a first half of perhaps the most conservatively-called plays of the Payton era, Colston made an indelible imprint on a game in need of a stamp. With Jimmy Graham at less than full capacity with back spasms, Colston stepped to the fore and was the key player in the 22-17 win.

Colston caught all 7 passes thrown his way, gaining 105 crucial yards--78 of which came in the second half.

More importantly, both of Colston's TDs came in the decisive 4th quarter, one when he found himself wide-open for an impressive leaping grab that he converted into a TD; then soon after, he scored the game-winning TD on a patented 1st down strike from Brees.

As pointed out by a few people, Payton slyly inserted seldom-used RT Pat McQuistan into the game on first down for what appeared to be a heavy run formation. On cue, Payton called a play-action pass and Colston had just enough space down the seam for Brees to drop in a perfect TD pass.

A quintessential Payton moment.

* In the last five games the defense has surrendered just one first-half TD, allowing the Saints the luxury of consistently playing with the lead during its five-game winning streak. And while it hasn't been all good for the Saints' defense this season--or even in this game--the defense has made enough strides to make the Saints look increasingly formidable.

Again on Sunday the defense played outstanding on 3rd down, limiting the Titans to just one conversion in ten attempts.

On a day when the offense struggled with consistency in finishing off drives, the defense continually served up chances for the offense to get into rhythm.

Further, the deservedly much-maligned rush defense was up to the task of slowing down Chris Johnson for the entirety of the day. Operating out of a 3-4 alignment that might just be a revelation, the Saints' LBs protected the periphery of the field and muted Johnson's big ability off the edge. As a result, the Titans continually faced 2nd and 3rd-and-longs that they were largely incapable of converting.

Finally, let's give Malcolm Jenkins a mention of praise for his spectacular open-field tackle of Chris Johnson on 2nd and 10 to prevent a first down and, probably, a touchdown. The stop proved crucial as two plays later, the Saints stuffed the Titans on 4th and 1 to blunt a go-ahead scoring opportunity for Tennessee late in the game.

Jenkins hasn't quite taken the leap that I expected this season, and that might be partly because the defensive scheme (which requires him to play 20 yards off the ball) has neutered his impact. Regardless, it was promising to see Jenkins make a confident, crucial play against the opponent's best player in a big spot. I feel certain there's more of that to come.

* Chris Ivory deserves credit for stepping into the void created by Mark Ingram's absence and maintaining the rushing attack's efficiency. It was an unassuming, though impactful, performance.

Again the Saints cracked 100+ yards on the ground, and again they hit the magic benchmark of 25-ish rush attempts. Ivory contributed with 53 yards on 13 carries (4.1 per) and flashed his impressive, vicious blend of power, explosion, and speed.

While I am admittedly a big fan of Mark Ingram, in Ivory I see a young Corey Dillon capable of being a special talent when he's healthy.

The Saints are in great shape with Ingram and Ivory sharing duties; for now, I expect Ingram to remain inactive for another week until he's fully healthy.

Once that happens, we should expect to see 4 RBs on the active roster because each of them is too good to be unavailable if needed at this point in the season.

* Lastly, one important note of good (great?): the Saints have not turned the ball over in their last four games, and they've turned it over just once in the past five.

Under Payton, the Saints are 21-0 when they don't turn the ball over.

Enough said.

The Bad
* How many times did Saints' defenders completely whiff on tackles? (This is a rhetorical question, though one also rooted in empiricism. I think that's like a paradox or something.)

Johnny Patrick set the unfortunate tone on the opening kickoff when he harmlessly, yet completely missed an easy tackle. And Tracy Porter recorded three head-shaking whiffs at the hands (feet?) of Chris Johnson, Lavell Hawkins, and Jake Locker.

The worst of all? On 3rd and 10 late in the 3rd quarter, Patrick Robinson took a brutal angle and missed what seemed like an easy open field tackle on Damian Williams, who turned it into a 54-yard gain. On the next play, Jake Locker scored to give the Titans the lead.

Recurring missed tackles and blown coverages (notably and most recently against the Falcons, Giants, and Lions) are not the hallmarks of a good defense. Obviously.

These same shortcomings coalesced into one ugly defensive performance last year against Seattle in the playoffs. You remember that, don't you? Well the problems linger.

Without a remedy for these fundamental ailments, the Saints face the prospect of falling victim to a similar, painful postseason fate this year.

* Lance Moore's end zone drop on 3rd down at the end of the first half was a play that, while certainly not egregious by any means, Moore routinely makes. And it was a big moment in the game. In a game on the road where points were not easy to come by, it's incumbent on Moore to make that catch.

Though I'm not here to crucify the sure-handed Moore for failing to make a difficult catch, I have come to expect a player of his caliber to deliver in key moments. Those four points that were left on the field? Those certainly would have been helpful late in the game.

* So let's recap here. The Saints take a 12-point with 7 minutes remaining and promptly respond by allowing the Titans to score a TD in just three plays. How does that happen?

And how do the Saints get into such a poor defensive alignment that Will Herring is covering WR Nate Washington?

It's one thing when a linebacker has to cover a RB or a TE, but the opposing team's chief deep threat? With a double-digit lead to protect in the 4th quarter? Unacceptable.

And then again on the Titans' last-second charge to win the game, only this time with Jo-Lonn Dunbar covering him? Ridiculous.

It's another rudimentary lapse that the Saints' defense, and its coaches, should simply be beyond committing this late in the season.

The Ugly
* The officiating was unconscionable on Sunday, with the referees throwing a bizarre amount of flags (19), many of which seemed to be on non-violations.

What's worse is that early on, they clearly missed a pass interference penalty on Malcolm Jenkins. To compensate, they called a phantom, make-up holding penalty on Jo-Lonn Dunbar that negated a Darren Sproles' touchdown on a punt return. The problem? Dunbar wasn't even on the field.

Upon review, Joe Buck and Troy Aikman had difficulty pinpointing the culprit, finally settling on Martez Wilson because, well, he was blocking someone.

Then, the refs completely missed Marques Colston being mugged by Cortland Finnegan in the end zone at the end of the first half. Finnegan had a firm grasp of Colston's arm, yet the refs failed to flag it.

In a game where there seemed to be a flag on every other play, the refs missed a few easy calls. What gives? Just a perfect storm of ineptitude.

I'm not going to bemoan the referees' incompetence to the point that I'd say it significantly affected the outcome of the game, but the frequency, inconsistency, and pettiness of the punitive philosophy espoused by Mike Carey and crew marred the game as a whole.

Worth Repeating
"When he took off as if he were running, I just took off with him. I was supposed to be in coverage, but hey, I made a play." Jo-Lonn Dunbar

* photos courtesy of Yahoo! Sports

By The Numbers: Examining the Saints Through 12 Games

2011-12-08T11:53:00.000-06:00

The 2011 regular season is 75% finished. Just like that. It's gone by quickly and, like last year, the Saints are 9-3 and well-positioned to make the postseason.

Just as we did after 4 weeks and at midseason, let's take a look and see how the Saints rank in a variety of statistical categories. We'll look at most of the same benchmarks we've used before, and we'll also highlight a smattering of individual contributions and rankings.

A green arrow indicates that the Saints have improved in ranking (not raw statistical output) since week 8. A red arrow, obviously, indicates the Saints have performed worse in the respective category.

Offense, general
* Points per game, 2nd: 32.8 --no change--
* Yards per game, 1st: 448.7 ↑
* Yards per play, 1st: 6.5 ↑
* Third Down Conversions, 1st: 53.2% --no change--
* Red Zone Scoring Attempts per game, 1st: 4.6 ↑
* Red Zone Scoring Percentage, 8th: 56.4% ↑

Since the halfway point of the season, the Saints have improved in almost every offensive category. Even though they remain #1 in 3rd down conversion percentage, they've actually dropped from 56% to a slighty-less efficient 53.2% clip. Additionally, the Saints rank a respectable 10th in time of possession.

Lastly, the Saints have improved considerably in their red zone offense from early in the season: they've improved from 42% after four weeks to 55% at midseason to 56.4% after 12 games. This has vaulted the offense from 20th to 8th in the league.

Offense, rushing
* Rushing attempts per game, 21st: 25.8 ↓
* Rushing yards per game, 8th: 123.3 ↑
* Rushing yards per attempt, 4th: 4.8 ↑

The offense has made some important strides in the running game overall this season, and has improved in the major categories since midseason. Even though they're running it slightly less than they did earlier in the season, the Saints have vaulted into the top-10 in both yards/game and yards/attempt.

On the strength on two 200-yard rushing games this season (Colts, Giants), the Saints are peaking in an area that will balance and diversify the offense come playoff time.

Perhaps the most impressive facet of the rushing attack is that, percentage-wise, the Saints run almost as little as any team in the league (ranking 29th). In gross attempts, they're in the bottom third. Yet despite that, they're 8th in yards and 6th in rushing first downs per game. That, Who Dats, is pristine efficiency.

Offense, passing
* Passing attempts per game, 1st: 41.4 --no change--
* Passing yards per game, 1st: 325.3 --no change--
* Passing yards per attempt, 4th: 7.9 ↑

What else did you expect? With a full complement of healthy receivers, an emerging offensive line, and two of the league's deadliest playmakers in Graham and Sproles, the Saints' passing attack is a model of diversity, precision, and efficiency.

As Saints' fans let's be thankful for Sean Payton's offense, the paradigm of the modern passing attack.

One last note, the Saints have improved in protecting Brees. Sacks/game have dropped from 2.4 at midseason to 1.8 after 12 weeks. More importantly, the Saints' sack percentage (4.05%) ranks third in the league. Because Brees throws the ball more than any other QB, sack percentage is the most accurate gauge for this area.

Again, this simply measures the percentage of times Brees is sacked when drops back to pass; credit this benchmark to an improved offensive line and Brees' trademark quick release.

Defense, general
* Points allowed per game, 19th: 22.4 ↑
* Yards allowed per game, 27th: 378.8 ↓
* Yards allowed per play, 27th: 5.9 ↓
* Third Down Conversions allowed, 7th: 34.6 ↑
* Red Zone Scoring Attempts allowed per game, 4th: 2.5 ↓
* Red Zone Scoring Percentage allowed, 28th: 63.3 ↑
* Takeaways, 30th: 12 ↑

Well, the Saints' defense confuses me. Unfortunately, it rarely seems to do so against its opponents. Where to start? To me, points-per-game-allowed is the most important gauge and the Saints have been a mediocre defense by this measure. So let's not panic.

While gross-yards-allowed is a bit misleading, the yards-per-play-allowed stat is much more telling. And the Saints are bad in this area and have gotten progressively worse as the season has progressed. Not a good sign. Maybe we should panic. Their saving grace thus far? They've been pretty damn good on 3rd downs. Why? I have no idea.

Further, though the Saints have been consistently bad in red zone defense all season long, they've been among the league's best at preventing opponents from getting into their red zone. The Saints allow the 4th-fewest red zone attempts, yet are one of the league's worst defenses once inside the red zone.

Why? Again, no idea. The only silver lining is that the Saints have improved their red zone defense from an abominable 74% (TDs-allowed) to the slightly-less abhorrent 63% rate.

One last note of head-scratchable defensive data: the Saints have improved their first-half scoring defense from 29th to 13th over the past four weeks. Yet their second-half scoring defense has dropped from 7th to 15th. Maybe there's an issue of consistency at play. But if the defense frequently looks and feels ugly, it's not hopeless and there are signs of life.

Defense, rushing and passing
* Rushing yards allowed per game, 16th: 114.6 ↑
* Rushing yards allowed per attempt, 30th: 4.9 ↑
* Passing yards allowed per game, 30th: 264.2 ↓
* Passing yards allowed per attempt, 15th: 6.7 ↓
* Sacks, 19th: 25 ↓

Not exactly encouraging data here. The Saints' run defense has apparently improved considerably since midseason when it was surrendering 124 yards/game. They've also gotten a bit better in the yards/attempt category but, you know, you can't really polish a turd. I mean, you can but you get the point.

In the passing-yards-per-attempt category, the Saints have plummeted from 5th to 15th, owing to big games from Eli Manning and Matthew Stafford.

And in news that's completely unsurprising, the Saints have not been very good at sacking (or pressuring) their opponents' QBs.

*****************************************************************************************************************************

If you're not yet bored to tears, let's take a look at some random player data and accompanying rankings.

Drew Brees

* 1st yards, 4031
* 2nd TDs, 30
* 2nd completion percentage, 70.4
* 2nd EPA/p
* 2nd DYAR
* 6th yards per pass attempt, 8.1

Jimmy Graham

* 2nd receptions, 75

* 2nd first downs, 57

* 2nd DYAR

* 4th EPA/p

* 5th TDs, 8

Darren Sproles

* 1st all-purpose yards, 1909

* 1st EPA/p

Sproles leads the all-purpose yards category by a substantial 422 yards.

Additionally, though he doesn't have enough carries to officially qualify according to NFL stats, Sproles leads the league in yards/rush with a 6.8 average among RBs with more than 60 carries.

Offensive Line

* 1st, -EPA

* 1st, ALY run blocking

* 2nd, -WPA

* 3rd, Pass Pro pass blocking

Thomas "Ambush-Whisperer" Morstead

* 1st net per punt, 43.6

* 8th average per punt, 47.5

Pierre Thomas

* 2nd, EPA/p

* 8th yards per rush attempt, 5.0

Marques Colston

* 4th catch rate

* 4th, EPA/p

Roman Harper

* 1st defensive back sacks, 6.5

* 5th, Tackle Factor

* 6th, EPA/g

Week 13 Rear View: Lions at Saints

2011-12-05T09:34:00.003-06:00

To reiterate, every week during the season I'll be posting a summary of the Saints' game, complete with key stats and a "Good, Bad, Ugly" performance review. If you have ideas or feedback, please feel free to submit those to me via blog comment, Twitter, Facebook, email, text, message in a bottle or whatever floats your proverbial boat.

Also, at four-week intervals, we'll see how the Saints rank league-wide in some important statistical categories.

Final Score: Saints 31, Lions 17
Record: 9-3
Complete Box Score

Yards Gained: 438
Yards Allowed: 466
Yards/play: 7.2
Yards/play allowed: 6.8

Turnover Differential: +1   [+1, 0], (-2)
First Down Differential: -4   [+21, -25], (+42)
Sack Differential: 0   [+2, -2], (0)
Time of Possession Differential: -10:06   (+20:51)

3rd Down Conversion: 50%, 6/12   (53%, 83/156)
Opponent's 3rd Down Conversion: 18%, 2/11   (35%, 54/156)

2011 Aggregate Point Differential: +124
Average PPG: 32.8
Opponent's Average PPG: 22.4

* as always, numbers in brackets [x] represent game totals, while numbers in parentheses (y) represent season totals.

The Good
* Let's take some time to congratulate the defense for holding the Lions to 17 points, 12 fewer than their season average heading into the game. While the defense continues to surrender chunks of yardage--465 and 466 in consecutive weeks--let's use points allowed as our most important benchmark around here.

In vanquishing four consecutive NFC foes, three of them postseason contenders, the Saints have given up just 16, 23, 24, and 17 points. This average of 20 points allowed is in line with last year's mark which ranked the Saints 7th overall in points allowed.

More importantly, during the current 4-game winning streak, the Saints have allowed just one first half TD, that score coming late in the first half of last night's game.

Playing with the lead has been critical to a winning formula for the Saints in the recent past and right now, they're implementing this formula flawlessly. More please.

On Sunday night, the defense did two things particularly well: they neutralized Calvin Johnson and played excellent on 3rd down.

Johnson faced a bevy of bracket coverage and 3-deep zones all night, forcing Matt Stafford to continually throw the ball underneath to his RBs. Johnson averaged just 11.5 yards/catch on 6 catches, relegating him to an ancillary piece in Sunday's outcome. Here's to a job well-done by Gregg Williams and the secondary in slowing down the dominant Calvin Johnson.

Additionally, the defense permitted just two 3rd-down conversions in 11 attempts. This continues a season-long trend of being efficient on 3rd down, where the Saints rank 7th overall.

While this may or may not have contributed to their excellent 3rd-down defense, the defense--to my eyes--did a great job of mixing coverages and blitzes all night long. Gregg Williams seemed to employ much more balance and much less jailbreak on Sunday night. Keep 'em guessing, Coach.

Most notably on 3rd downs, the Lions seemed fooled and were subsequently forced into a -2 punt differential on the night. Not a recipe for beating the Saints.

Lastly, let's mention Jonathan Vilma's return to the starting lineup. Vilma made an impact, recording 10 tackles and a pass defended as he knocked off the lingering rust.

Though Vilma has been the subject of an understated criticism from segments of the football cognoscenti and fans alike, I'm not much on board with that school of thought. While Vilma's play has curtailed from his prime year of 2009, he's still the Saints' best LB until definitively proven otherwise and, moreover, his intellectual presence on the Saints' defense is paramount to tactics and in-game adjustments.

Having a healthy and confident Vilma for the stretch run of 2011 is a welcomed sight.

* Is that you Robert Meachem? Glad you made it, we've missed you around these parts. Seemingly overnight, Meachem has gone from a just-scratching-the-surface-of-his-talent youngster to a trusted, savvy veteran. Am I alone here? When did that happen?

On Sunday night Meachem did a lot with a little, catching 3 passes for 119 yards and a TD. In his career vs. Detroit (3 games), Meachem has averaged 34 yards/catch and scored 3 TDs. I know it's probably just coincidence, but it's nonetheless impressive.

Particularly impressive on Sunday night was Meachem's 38-yard reception on 3rd and 4 that rescued the Saints from the shadows of their goal line. Isolated in man coverage on the left sideline, Meachem masterfully and slyly slowed down ever-so-slightly and used his body to create separation from his defender, allowing Brees to drop in a perfect pass.

Were you not paying attention, Nate Burleson? Because that's how you do it.

Soon thereafter, the Saints scored their first TD of the night.

Then later in the 2nd quarter, Meachem found himself wide open in the middle of the field, and though the ball was slightly underthrown by Brees, Meachem managed to bob, weave, and spin his defender in Barry Sanders-esque fashion before slipping into the end zone for a highlight-reel 67-yard TD.

* As with Drew Brees, I'm running out of superlatives for Jimmy Graham. Can we, once more, consider the fact that Jimmy Graham did not play football in high school and then played just one season in college where he caught only 17 passes?

And now, in his second season as a professional, he's setting both team and league records? It's unprecedented and the spectacle that Saints' fans are witnessing is historic. And to think that fans once decried the loss of Shockey? In Loomis We Trust.

Last night, Cris Collinsworth stated that, besides Brees, Graham is the player most important to the Saints.

While it shouldn't be such a jarring statement, it speaks volumes to the transcendent talent, drive, and humility that Graham possesses.

And for all you out there continually scrambling for a suitable nickname for Graham? This is easy.

Have you not figured this out yet?

Jimmy the Great.

Let's move on now.

The Bad
* You know why the Lions ran up 466 yards of offense? It's because they possessed the ball for 10 more minutes than the Saints did.

Last week, we surmised that the less frequent the defense is on the field, the better the Saints' chances are for victory. Groundbreaking stuff, I know. Thanks much. I'll be here all season long.

On Sunday, the Lions controlled the clock - most notably in the 3rd quarter where they climbed back into the game by possessing the ball for almost 13 minutes.

If you're looking for a reason why this game was closer than it probably should've been after the Saints jumped out to a 24-7 lead, this is why.

* Cam Jordan's penalty? Meh. It wasn't egregious or anything. And I'm hesitant to even list it here. But it really seemed unnecessary and doltish, especially the forearm to the head.

Even if he wasn't late, that's a penalty every time. And the timing of it couldn't have been any worse. Just for the spazz factor alone, it deserves inclusion here.

The Ugly
* Another game, another brutally-blown coverage. Come on, now. What's worse about the blown coverage this week? It came with 13 seconds left in the 1st half. How can you possibly surrender a 49-yard pass at that point, especially when Malcolm Jenkins typically lines up 20 yards behind the line of scrimmage?

Last night, Collinsworth noted that the Saints' safeties were lined up "in different area codes" yet somehow Titus Young found himself wide open way down the field.

For the second straight week, the coverage was blown on Patrick Robinson's side of the field. I'm not solely directing the blame at Robinson because Jenkins was nowhere to be found, and I'm certainly not qualified to indicate what the coverage scheme was, but Robinson did get caught peeking in the backfield.

Gotta do better.

Worth Repeating
"Jimmy Graham has proven himself to be uncoverable this season." - Cris Collinsworth

photos courtesy of Yahoo! Sports

The Eyes of a (Who Dat) Nation

2011-12-02T08:10:00.002-06:00

Week 13 pleasantly delivers another primetime game for the Saints.

While the Saints have been consistently good enough over the past five+ seasons to merit the continued charms of appearing in nationally-televised football games, Saints' fans should be grateful for the Saints' excellence in primetime games during the Payton/Brees era.

Before we proceed, let's define "primetime" and "nationally-televised" which, for the sake of this exercise, will serve as the same term. Simply put, these are games that have been broadcast on national TV with no other NFL game concurrently running - Thursday/Saturday/Sunday night games, Monday night games, and postseason games.

Essentially, these are games where the Saints have had the eyeballs of a football nation focused squarely (or obliquely) upon them. And guess what?

They've been really good, definitively better than they otherwise have been in the traditional game slots (you already knew that, didn't you?).

How much better? Almost nine percentage points, which is quite substantial.

Overall, to date, the Saints are 61-36 under Payton (62.9%). In the traditionally-slotted Sunday games, the Saints are 43-28 (60.5%). In primetime games, they're 18-8 (69.2%).

A little bit of rudimentary mathematical wizardry tells us that the Saints win 14.4% more often in primetime than they do on Sunday afternoons.

Obviously, this is a good thing. But why?

After reviewing the data, the usual anecdotal suspects show up. But mostly, Drew Brees comes to the fore.

Though this is by now emphatically rote, as goes Brees, so go the Saints. And in primetime, Brees has been better than normal. And in primetime wins? Better by a lot. Coincidentally, that could also serve as Drew Brees' tagline.

Drew Brees: Better By A Lot

His quarterback rating is 6.5 points higher than it is during the traditional game slots, and the key indicators of completion percentage, yards, touchdowns, and interceptions all improve during primetime.

Moreover, in the 18 primetime victories, Brees has been downright, absurdly video game-esque. His average passer rating is 115; he's completed over 70% of his passes; and he's thrown just 5 interceptions in those 18 wins.

Pretty simply put, Brees is a better player in primetime and for a significant majority of those games, he's been amazingly good.

I wanted to dig deeper into why the Saints have been so good in primetime but, really, it's no secret. Let's not complexify the issue (yes, I made that word up).

Brees is a stone-cold mercenary, and even moreso when he knows everybody's watching. An icy, ruthless performance artist, if you will.

If Deion Sanders wasn't such a preening ass-clown, I'd lobby for Brees to assume his moniker. You know, kinda how Patrick Peterson handed down #7 to Tyrannosaurus Mathieu. But I digress ...

More primetime notes:

* Turnover Margin - though marginally in the black, the average turnover differential is a +0.23 in primetime whereas it's averaged -0.24 in the traditional game slots. In the primetime wins, the turnover margin jumps all the way to +1.3.

* The Saints have averaged 29.9 points in their primetime games--3.1 points more than their traditional slot scoring average--including the three highest-scoring games of the Payton era: 49 vs. the Giants last week, 51 vs. Green Bay in 2008, and 62 vs. Indianapolis this year.

And though it's not record-worthy in any empirical sense, I'd be remiss not to mention the 42-17 primetime dismantling of the Parcells-led Cowboys in 2006, a resounding declaration that the pupil had surpassed the master and that these Saints were a different, treacherous breed of beast to be reckoned with for years to come.

* Brees has career highs in these three categories, all during Saints' primetime games: 88.6% completion percentage (Indy, 2011); a perfect 158.3 passer rating (New England, 2009); 16.1 yards/attempt (2009, New England).

And though it's not a career high, Brees has accounted for 5 TDs twice in primetime games thus far in 2011 (Indy, NYG). Now read that sentence again.

* The Saints lost 3 of their first 6 primetime games under Payton, including a Payton/Brees-era nadir against Tennessee in 2007: a 17-point home loss, the loss of Deuce to another knee injury, and Brees' worst performance as a Saints' QB (39.6 rating).

Since those first 6 games, the Saints are a blistering 15-5 in primetime.

Now the Lions come calling on Sunday night. And everybody's gonna be watching.

Week 12 Rear View: Giants at Saints

2011-11-29T10:45:00.003-06:00

To reiterate, every week during the season I'll be posting a summary of the Saints' game, complete with key stats and a "Good, Bad, Ugly" performance review. If you have ideas or feedback, please feel free to submit those to me via blog comment, Twitter, Facebook, email, text, message in a bottle or whatever floats your proverbial boat.

Also, at four-week intervals, we'll see how the Saints rank league-wide in some important statistical categories.

Final Score: Saints 49, Giants 24
Record: 8-3
Complete Box Score

Yards Gained: 577
Yards Allowed: 465
Yards/play: 8.4
Yards/play allowed: 6.6

Turnover Differential: +2   [+2, 0], (-3)
First Down Differential: +2   [+31, -29], (+46)
Sack Differential: +1   [+1, 0], (0)
Time of Possession Differential: -3:28   (+30:57)

3rd Down Conversion: 56%, 5/9   (53%, 77/144)
Opponent's 3rd Down Conversion: 45%, 5/11   (36%, 52/145)

2011 Aggregate Point Differential: +110
Average PPG: 32.9
Opponent's Average PPG: 22.9

* as always, numbers in brackets [x] represent game totals, while numbers in parentheses (y) represent season totals.

The Good
* To date, over the past six seasons in the NFL, there's been no better football player than Drew Brees. On Monday with the nation watching, Brees delivered yet another vintage performance. Since the advent of Monday Night Football in 1970, no player did what Brees did on Monday night: throw for 350 yards and 4 TDs, with a rushing TD to boot.

Another day, another record. Ho hum.

All night long Brees was at his primetime-best, most notably on a few sequences. First, Brees again showed his peerless mastery of the two-minute offense at the end of the first half. Backed up to his twelve yard line with 1:09 left in the first half, Brees effortlessly guided the Saints 88 yards to a TD in just 34 seconds.

Brees connected with Marques Colston for 50, 13, and 15 yards on the drive and then finished his two-minute masterpiece with a perfectly-executed route to Lance Moore for a ten-yard TD.

Then midway through the 3rd quarter, Brees doggedly fought off a series of overmatched Giants' defenders before finding Pierre Thomas in the flat for a 15-yard gain. For a player as talented as Brees, that play was a revelatory exclamation of Brees' determination, fortitude, and unwavering desire to win.

All grit, no quit. A signature Brees moment.

Brees then emphatically punctuated the drive three plays later with an alert, eye-poppingly deft 8-yard TD run that left Giants' safety Deon Grant hopelessly grasping for air and Brees diving for six.

If you tuned in last night never having seen Brees play, those two plays combined with the drive at the end of the first half would tell you all you need to know - specifically that Brees' all-encompassing, sublime skill set, his poise and his determination have made him the NFL's most valuable player over these past five-plus seasons.

* Do the Saints have the best rushing attack in the NFL? While at first glance that question might seem to be hyperbolic and nonsensical, the case can certainly be made.

With an offensive line finally hitting its stride, combined with the deepest and most diverse set of RBs on any team, the Saints rank 4th overall in yards per carry and 8th overall in rush yards per game despite ranking in the bottom-third in rushing attempts per game.

Efficiency at its finest.

On Monday, the Saints blasted the Giants for 205 yards on 6.8 yards per carry. Pierre Thomas, in particular, again played a fantastic game gaining 63 yards on eight carries (7.9 per) while adding another 47 yards on three catches (15.7 per).

With Chris Ivory challenging him for playing time, Mark Ingram looked as powerful and explosive as he has all season. While Ingram has been one of the league's better short yardage backs all season long, he finally flashed his big-play ability with an impressive burst down the sideline for a 35-yard TD jaunt.

That Ingram is both explosive and physical adds an element that positions the Saints' offense to prosper in a variety of environments. With the prospect of playing playoff games on the road in less-than-ideal weather conditions, Ingram's continued growth remains vital to the Saints' postseason chances.

* The Saints are slowly whittling away their negative turnover margin even though the differential remains in the red.

In the last two games, both important NFC contests, the Saints have taken the ball away three times while not giving it away once.

That combined effect as it relates to the Saints' style of play is crucial for victory. As the Saints' highly-efficient offense gains more opportunities to score due to takeaways, the more pressure it places on the opposing offense to keep pace and play a more one-dimensional game, which subsequently benefits the Saints' defense.

On the flip side, when the Saints' offense protects the ball, it minimizes exposure to the Saints' weaker element - its defense. And though this is obvious, it needs stating. The more the Saints turn the ball over, the more the defense is on the field. The more the defense plays, the more likely they are to be exposed.

Again, I know it's cliche, overstated, and mildly annoying to hear (and write). But when the Saints protect the ball, they are a very difficult team to beat. Here's to hoping that the continued improvement in the turnover differential category remains upwardly mobile for the remainder of the season.

The Bad
* There really wasn't a whole lot of "bad" on display, but the Saints' defense did get repeatedly chunked by the Giants' offense for 8.3 yards per pass attempt. Eli Manning played an excellent game, abusing the Saints' secondary for most of the night.

Though a portion of Manning's yardage came while the Saints were sitting back in coverage and protecting the lead, the Saints still egregiously blew a coverage early in the 4th quarter that gave Giants some semblance of hope.

As detailed by the TV broadcast, Roman Harper mindlessly abandoned his coverage assignment and attacked the line of scrimmage on a first down early in the 4th. As a result, when Patrick Robinson "released" Victor Cruz to the next coverage zone, there was no one left to defend Cruz, allowing him to score an uncontested 72-yard TD.

A needless mistake that now looks minor could have been costly as the Giants cut the lead to 35-17 with an entire quarter to play.

The Ugly
* Penalties? 11 for 104 yards? Holy hell, did the Saints lose their composure?

First, let me say that the roughing-the-passer penalty on Will Smith in the 2nd quarter was beyond absurd. Just a silly call.

Second, the "defenseless receiver" unnecessary roughness penalty incurred by Isa Abdul-Quddus (can we all agree to call him "Q" from here on out?) was a clean shoulder-to-shoulder blast, but the refs in today's NFL are going to throw a flag 99% of the time in that situation.

I don't like it and I think the defender has a right to cleanly separate the ball from the WR, but apparently the NFL now thinks otherwise. Adapting to the new norms is paramount, even if the new norms border on ridiculous.

Additionally, Tracy Porter incurred a mind-bogglingly stupid personal foul by tackling Hakeem Nicks five yards out bounds. And Roman Harper added another needless, though less than violent, defenseless receiver penalty in the end zone. C'mon man.

That's four, 15-yard personal fouls for those of you counting at home.

Add in another seven penalties and you have an uncharacteristic display of undiscplined mess from a Saints' team that has mostly been smart and composed under Sean Payton.

Worth Repeating
"Coming in week and in week out we want to win the turnover battle. We are near the bottom in the interceptions on the season. You want to finish on the positive end each game. That’s what we strive to do week in and week out and that’s what we did tonight." - Tracy Porter

Surveying the NFC Playoff Landscape

2011-11-17T13:12:00.001-06:00

Because it's the Saints' bye week, let's take a break from Saints-specific content and glance at the NFC playoff picture.

This will mostly be based on speculation and wild guesses, but let's take a stab at determining the six playoff teams from the NFC.

I looked at the remaining schedules for all the teams currently in contention, and here's what I came up with:

1) Green Bay, 15-1. This is pretty obvious at this point.

Their final record isn't really all that important, but I see virtually no chance that they're NOT the #1 seed in the NFC.

2) San Francisco, 12-4. The 49ers' remaining schedule isn't too daunting, but games at Baltimore and vs. Pittsburgh loom. Other than that, their five other games are all against their less-than-capable divisional opponents (ARI, SEA, STL).

I can't see San Francisco losing more than three games the rest of the season so, very surprisingly, let's give the 49ers the #2 seed in the NFC.

3) New Orleans, 11-5. Though it's still possible for the Saints to gain the #2 seed in the NFC, it doesn't seem likely with regards to the remaining schedules of the Saints and the 49ers.

Even in the event of an identical record with the Saints at season's end, San Francisco would almost certainly hold the tiebreaker, which is conference record. The Saints' path to a #2 seed would be to win out, while having San Francisco lose three of their remaining seven games.

Because this doesn't seem likely, let's pencil in the Saints for the #3 seed and a home playoff game in the wild card round.

4) Dallas, 10-6. The outcome of the NFC East is going to shape the landscape of the NFC playoff field. I see Dallas winning 10 games after a slow start this year. They have a legitimate shot at getting to 11-5 with the ease of their remaining schedule.

If both the Cowboys and the Giants finish at 10-6 (as I'll guess they do), and assuming they split their games vs. each other, Dallas should be in better position to win the division tiebreaker, which in order is: divisional record; win percentage vs. common opponents; win percentage in the conference. The way I see it, this could very likely come all the way down to conference win percentage in which Dallas would likely have the edge.

5) Chicago, 11-5. Regardless of how good the Bears are playing right now, they're a wild card team at best since Green Bay is virtually a lock to win the NFC North. Though they're tied with Detroit at 6-3 at the moment in the NFC North, I think the Lions will fade out of contention with a difficult remaining schedule.

On the other hand, I see Chicago finishing the season strong and being a very difficult wild-card matchup for whomever they indeed draw.

6) New York Giants, 10-6. Considering the strength of the Giants' remaining schedule, winning 10 games would be a good result. It's eminently possible that the Giants go 3-4 (or worse) the rest of the season and miss the playoffs outright.

However, I think they'll fight their way to a 4-3 record and sneak into the playoffs over Atlanta via tiebreaker.

I see Atlanta going 5-2 over their last seven games, giving them a 10-6 regular season record. With the weakness of their schedule, the Falcons could certainly get to 11-5 but with the inconsistent way they've played so far this year, 10-6 seems more likely.

If both the Giants and the Falcons finish at 10-6, I see the Giants securing the last playoff spot via tiebreaker. The tiebreaker for wild card teams is: head-to-head; win percentage in conference; win percentage in common games; strength of victory; strength of schedule.

This could well come down to the strength of victory tiebreaker, which should give the Giants an edge due to their victory against the Patriots (among others). Though it's difficult to predict, I'm giving the Giants the #6 seed.

(And if Atlanta instead secures the #6 seed? They would be heading back to New Orleans for a playoff game under this scenario.)

******************************************************************************************

If it somehow happens to play out in the manner I've outlined above, then the wild card games would be the Saints hosting the Giants and the Cowboys hosting the Bears.

Let's speculate a bit further. The Saints' hopes for an NFC crown might play out like this:

Winning a home playoff game in the wild card round
Going to San Francisco in the divisional round and upending the upstart 49ers

Then, either:

Heading back to Lambeau for the NFC Championship game or ....
Hosting the NFC Championship in the Dome if the Packers somehow lose their divisional round game

Obviously these are mostly wild guesses as to what will happen; the Saints aren't remotely guaranteed a playoff spot at this point; and it's possible that the NFC playoff field will look completely different come season's end.

For the Saints' however, the most likely path to the NFC championship game is to lock up the #3 seed, win a home playoff game, and then win in San Francisco.

After that, who(dat) knows?

Week 10 Rear View: Saints at Falcons

2011-11-14T10:22:00.004-06:00

To reiterate, every week during the season I'll be posting a summary of the Saints' game, complete with key stats and a "Good, Bad, Ugly" performance review. If you have ideas or feedback, please feel free to submit those to me via blog comment, Twitter, Facebook, email, text, message in a bottle or whatever floats your proverbial boat.

Also, at four-week intervals, we'll see how the Saints rank league-wide in some important statistical categories.

Final Score: Saints 26, Falcons 23
Record: 7-3
Complete Box Score

Yards Gained: 363
Yards Allowed: 481
Yards/play: 6.1
Yards/play allowed: 5.7

Turnover Differential: +1   [+1, 0], (-5)
First Down Differential: -12   [+18, -30], (+44)
Sack Differential: =1   [+1, 0], (-1)
Time of Possession Differential: -6:29   (+34:25)

3rd Down Conversion: 31%, 4/13   (53%, 72/135)
Opponent's 3rd Down Conversion: 31%, 5/16   (35%, 47/134)

2011 Aggregate Point Differential: +85
Average PPG: 31.3
Opponent's Average PPG: 22.8

* as always, numbers in brackets [x] represent game totals, while numbers in parentheses (y) represent season totals.

The Good
* Has Marques Colston ever played better as a professional? This I seriously doubt. Once again, Colston nudged himself into the company of the NFL's best wide receivers with a dominating, ballsy performance in the Saints' biggest game thus far in 2011.

Colston delivered an astounding 89% catch rate, catching 8 passes on 9 targets for 113 gritty, vital yards. Incredibly, each of Colston's eight receptions produced a first down--an impact performance if there ever was one.

Take a look at this jarring catch log: 9 yards on 3rd and 2; 10 yards on 1st and 10; 14 yards on 2nd and 9; 15 yards on 1st and 10; 19 yards on 3rd and 8; 15 yards on 2nd and 14; 18 yards on 3rd and 5; 13 yards on 3rd and 11.

Colston came up big--crucial play after crucial play--displaying his trademark physical and mental toughness while reminding Saints' fans that, yes, this quiet 7th-round, throwaway pick from sleepy Hofstra University is all but certainly the best wide receiver to ever don the black and gold.

* Maybe Sunday's performance will finally quiet the absurd nonsense that typically surrounds the play of Roman Harper. It's eerily reminiscent of the now mostly silent LSU-fan-base vs. Les-Miles-as-bad-coach rhetoric that lingered for years even when Miles was mostly winning but periodically screwing up a variety of game management situations.

Now too, I hope Roman Harper has silenced his doubters. Like Colston, Harper probably played his best game as a professional on Sunday.

Take a look at this definitively beastly stat line: 13 tackles (10 solo), 1 sack, 2 tackles for loss, 1 pass defended, 2 QB hits.

Harper was all over the field on Sunday, as evidenced by his stats. Yet again, Harper set the tone physically for a Saints' defense that sometimes seems to forget that just simply hitting the other guy as hard as possible is a worthy defensive strategy.

If Harper holds on for the easy interception at the end of regulation, this would have been a performance for the ages. Instead, Harper let the ball slip through his famously tenuous grasp. But regardless, Harper's impact was potent and convincing in a game the Saints needed to win.

Lastly, with a team-leading 6.5 sacks on the season, Harper needs just two more sacks to set an NFL record for sacks by a defensive back in a season (Adrian Wilson, 8, 2005).

* Is that you, red zone defense? Why, yes, it is. Nice to see you. We've missed you around these parts lately. Coming into the game ranked last in red zone defense, the Saints picked a fine time to leave the past behind, limiting the Falcons to just three FGs in three red zone opportunities.

Both the Falcons' first and last possession of regulation saw them threatening in the red zone, and the Saints' defense came up with big stops on both occasions.

On the first possession of the game, the Falcons methodically choked the life out of the first quarter clock on a 16-play, 8:40 drive.The Falcons got as close as the 13-yard line, but the Saints stiffened and forced a FG, a moral victory if there ever was one.

On the Falcons' last possession of the game, on their take-a-couple-of-years-off-your-life march down the field to tie/win the game, the Saints' defense finally bowed up from the (gasp!) 9-yard line and forced a FG instead of allowing what almost seemed like an inevitable soul-crushing, season-defining Falcons' TD.

Though the Saints' defense is far from perfect, Sunday's red zone showing was a positive sign and a reminder that, when opponents settle for FGs instead of TDs against the Saints, they're typically not going to win the game. It's not much of a fancy formula, but it's a formula nonetheless. Let's hope there's a bit more where that came from.

* Coach Payton's return to the sideline was a welcomed sight and emotional boost.

Even if Payton's impact is still at less than full capacity, his presence and confidence are vital cogs in a delicate machine that demands input from its varied components to operate in a close-to-optimal capacity.

Crutchless or not, Payton should be on the sideline for the remainder of the season. And that's a good thing.

* And obviously, let's not forget to give the Saints' much-maligned run defense its due.

If nothing else, on the one running play this season that really mattered, the Saints' run defense was up to the task.

Stuffing Michael Turner on 4th and inches in overtime was a thing of beauty, and an image that will endure as a defining play for the 2011 Saints.

The Bad
* Does Malcolm Jenkins miss the calming veteran presence of Darren Sharper? Too often this season, Jenkins has played at an uneven, inconsistent pace. After fully believing that Jenkins would make the proverbial leap to the ranks of the elite this year, I can't help but to think that Jenkins has regressed a bit and is struggling to find his way at times.

On Sunday, though Jenkins contributed mightily on the Falcons' failed 4th and inches carry in OT, he still left a few plays on the field.

And while Jenkins certainly didn't play terribly on Sunday--nor has he this season--there's still room for improvement.

Late in the second quarter with the Falcons backed up to their 19, Jenkins got turned around and was slow to react to a pass that Harry Douglas turned into a 46-yard reception. Jenkins seemed to be slightly out of position, then got turned around after Leigh Torrence slipped, leaving Douglas wide open.

Luckily, that mistake did not prove costly when the normally-reliable Matt Bryant missed a 41-yard FG as the first half expired. Those missed points proved to be the difference in the game; that the Falcons even had an opportunity there was the remnant of Douglas' 46-yard catch-and-run.

Then, early in the third quarter, Jenkins took a brutally-poor angle on the wide-bodied Michael Turner, allowing Turner to rumble 24 yards into Saints territory on a possession that soon after resulted in ...

* ... maybe the worst display of tackling in the NFL all season. After the Falcons converted a 4th and 1 from the Saints' 26-yard line, Jason Snelling caught a short pass from Matt Ryan and proceeded to make a mockery of the Saints' defense, battering through nine wanna-be tacklers on his way to a 21-yard TD.

As illustrated masterfully by FOX on the TV broadcast, Snelling both eluded and ran through a blanket of Saints' defenders--including a group of five that had him corralled--and then dismissively stiff-armed Malcolm Jenkins on his way to a TD.

* The Saints' running game was nowhere to be found on Sunday. 41 yards? 2.6 yards per carry? Needless to say, these are not impressive clips. (I said it anyway)

For the second time in three games, the running game has been non-existent. While the Saints have mostly run the ball effectively this season, the disappearing act that's recently manifested itself is something that certainly needs to disappear in its own right.

More specifically, Mark Ingram was a complete non-factor in his limited duties begging the question: Is it Ingram or Ivory from here on out?

Assuming the relative health of both backs, who will the Saints deactivate on gameday for the last seven games? It seems extremely unlikely that the Saints will carry 4 RBs during gamedays, meaning that either Ingram or Ivory won't be playing.

My guess is that Ingram is still the man for now. But if Ingram delivers another sluggish performance or two, Sean Payton might be faced with the unenviable task of deactivating his first-round pick on gamedays.

Here's to hoping that Ingram returns to full health during the bye week, and plays up to his Heisman-winning pedigree the remainder of the season.


The Ugly
* As referenced earlier, the Saints 2-minute defense was mostly abysmal on Sunday at the end of both halves.

With 1:05 left in the first half and the Falcons backed up their own 1-yard line, the Saints permissively allowed the Falcons a potentially back-breaking big play to get into FG range before the half expired.

The Saints were bailed out by a Matt Bryant miss.

Then with Atlanta backed up to their own 6-yard line with 1:55 left and no timeouts, the Falcons quickly dug out of the hole in four plays, including consecutive 23-yard catches by Harry Douglas and a 20-yard catch by Douglas.

The Falcons effortlessly moved the ball into scoring range as time expired, and had several chances to win the game outright much less tie it.

Adjustments in this area are likely to be priority #1 for Gregg Williams during the bye week.

Worth Repeating
"The thing I'm most proud of is the 2nd half wasn't perfect but we fought back in OT. 4th and 1 was a huge stop. We made the plays we needed to." - Sean Payton

* photos courtesy of Yahoo! Sports

Down for a Jack Move, round 1

2011-11-10T08:21:00.000-06:00

Sunday marks the first of two remaining games in 2011 for the Saints against their long-time rival, the Atlanta Falcons.

The Saints hold a slight half-game edge in the NFC South standings, but are tied with Atlanta in the loss column (3).

With two of the Saints' remaining games against Atlanta, the NFC South division title will almost certainly come down to the outcomes of these two games.

The Falcons have won three straight games, and with this weekend's tilt, they will start a three-game homestretch where they'll be looking to take over first place in the NFC South. Over the course of their remaining schedule, the Falcons face opponents with a combined 44.7% win percentage (30-37) while playing five of their last eight at home.

On the other hand, the Saints' remaining opponents hold a 53.5% win percentage (30-26) with four of the last seven being played at home.

With the 2011 stretch fully upon us, this game couldn't be of much greater importance to the Saints.

This game will go a long way in determining if these 2011 Saints are the knock-out-artist, title contenders many presume them to be, or if they're just another run-of-the-mill, above-average team moonlighting as a trophy-lifter.

With all three of the Saints' losses coming in road games this year, a reversal of that losing trend would not just be timely, but it would also signal that the Saints have what it takes when lofty are the stakes.

If not now, when (win)?

RECENT HISTORY
Over the course of the most recent Saints-Falcons games--specifically those from 2008 forward in which both Sean Payton and Mike Smith have been involved--the Saints are 4-2 vs Atlanta, posting a 2-1 record in the Georgia Dome and a 2-1 record in the Superdome.

Furthermore, in the 25 home games with Mike Smith coaching and Matt Ryan as their QB, the Falcons have lost just three games.

And with both the Falcons and the Saints excelling in their home environment in the recent past, both teams have largely been evenly matched during the Smith-Payton rivalry.

The Saints have averaged 25.2 points in the six contents; the Falcons have averaged an even 25.

The Saints hold slight edges in the key categories of yards per play (6.3 vs 5.9) and passer efficiency (98.2 vs 93.4). Additionally, the Saints have a larger margin of average in yards per game (422 vs 374) which, really, isn't indicative of much.

Surprisingly, the Saints have run the ball better overall (4.3 YPC vs 4.1) while the Falcons have thrown the ball better (7.9 YPP vs 7.6). In the last three match-ups, though, the Saints have not hit the four-yards-per-carry benchmark.

Finally, the area that's most lopsided and most concerning for the Saints is in--you guessed it--turnover margin (everybody sigh). The Falcons are +4 in turnovers overall in these six contests. Further, the Saints are a lowly -5 in turnover margin in their two losses and a nominal +1 in their four victories.

KEY PLAYERS
The player who will play the most pivotal role in this Sunday's contest will likely be Matt Ryan. In his two wins against the Saints, his passer rating has been an excellent 121.4 as he's completed 66% of his passes for 4 TDs and no interceptions.

Conversely, in his losses to the Saints, Ryan has a middling 74.8 passer rating, a 56% completion rate, 3 TDs, and 4 INTs.

More importantly, Ryan has attempted on average about eight fewer passes per game in the two wins. This stat is consistent with his overall statistical body of work in which Ryan averages 9.1 fewer passes in wins than he does in losses (29.5 vs 38.6).

Ryan's career average in attempts per game is right at 32. So as Ryan nears and surpasses this baseline, the better the Saints chances are for victory.

And while Ryan attempting a higher number of passes is not specifically the cause of Falcons' losses, it is certainly correlated with those losses. Thus, a set of events that leads to Ryan throwing more passes than average is likely a recipe for a Saints' win.

Run defense, anybody? How about some turnovers? Or what about jumping out to an early lead?

The other player who could play a key role in the game's outcome might well be Pierre Thomas. With Mark Ingram attempting to return from a nagging heel injury and Chris Ivory nursing a freshly-sore hamstring, Thomas should be in line for plenty of snaps this weekend.

As opposing defenses continue to focus their game-planning efforts on neutralizing Jimmy Graham and Darren Sproles, Pierre Thomas should benefit from a lack of attention from the Falcons.

In the last six games against Atlanta, Thomas has averaged 93.7 yards (combined rushing and receiving) while scoring 5 TDs. He's been the Saints' most reliable and consistent threat against the Atlanta defense, and last year's week 16 contest cemented (for me, at least) Pierre Thomas' importance to the Saints' offense.

Returning from injury, Thomas logged 102 total yards and a TD in a critical Saints' win.

Does the never-gets-enough-credit PT have a little more of that magic in store?

2011 TRENDS
The Falcons have been excellent this season in the red zone both offensively and defensively.

Combined with turnover statistics, this is an area that houses the biggest disparity between the teams. The Falcons are 2nd in red zone offense (64% TDs) and 4th in red zone defense (38% TDs allowed).

As has been noted repeatedly, the Saints are dead-last in red zone defense (71%) but a respectable 11th in red zone offense (54.6%).

In the turnover margin categories, the Falcons rank 12th at +2 while the Saints rank a disappointing 26th at -6.

I know this is repeated ad naseum to the point of eye-rollable annoyance, but look for these two areas to play a determining role in Sunday's game. If the previous nine weeks of the 2011 season are an indicator, then the Falcons possess a definitive edge in these areas.

Note - while I realize there's a school of thought that espouses belief that red zone stats are mostly meaningless because the red zone is just an arbitrary twenty-yard patch of field, we'll shelve that discussion for another day and move forward with the assumption that red zone statistics are worthy indicators, though not absolute in their predictive powers.

LAST WORD
Lastly, the Saints and Falcons have won the past two NFC South titles respectively, and it appears almost certain that one of these two will win it again this year.

On the season, the Saints have been up and down--good at home, not so good on the road. The Falcons started slowly, but have come on strong winning three straight.

And though the Saints are slight favorites in Vegas right now, I expect the line to move closer to even or Falcons -1 as kickoff nears; I'm also expecting a majority of the talking heads in the national media to pick the Falcons as winners in this game.

But regardless of how one spins it, this Sunday's game against the Falcons is a defining moment for the 2011 Saints.

A win would expressly restore the notion that the latest incarnation of the Saints are, indeed, championship-worthy.

Week 9 Rear View: Bucs at Saints

2011-11-07T08:52:00.002-06:00

To reiterate, every week during the season I'll be posting a summary of the Saints' game, complete with key stats and a "Good, Bad, Ugly" performance review. If you have ideas or feedback, please feel free to submit those to me via blog comment, Twitter, Facebook, email, text, message in a bottle or whatever floats your proverbial boat.

Also, at four-week intervals, we'll see how the Saints rank league-wide in some important statistical categories.

Final Score: Saints 27, Bucs 16
Record: 6-3
Complete Box Score

Yards Gained: 453
Yards Allowed: 365
Yards/play: 7.1
Yards/play allowed: 6.3

Turnover Differential: -1   [+0, -1], (-6)
First Down Differential: +7   [+25, -18], (+56)
Sack Differential: 0   [+1, -1], (-2)
Time of Possession Differential: +0:08   (+40:54)

3rd Down Conversion: 50%, 5/10   (56%, 68/122)
Opponent's 3rd Down Conversion: 17%, 2/12   (36%, 42/118)

2011 Aggregate Point Differential: +82
Average PPG: 31.9
Opponent's Average PPG: 22.8

* as always, numbers in brackets [x] represent game totals, while numbers in parentheses (y) represent season totals.

THE GOOD
* Week 9 saw the return of a formidable Saints' running attack, a dominating effort by the offensive line, and an affirming statement of the Saints' physicality. The Saints rolled up 195 yards rushing with an impressive 7.0 yards per carry average.

As noted during the TV broadcast, the Saints' offensive line consistently won the battle at the line of scrimmage, repeatedly mashing the Bucs' overmatched defensive line backwards at the line of attack. Utilizing its bevy of backs, the Saints generated quality contributions from Chris Ivory (67 yards), Pierre Thomas (66 yards), and Darren Sproles (42 yards). Brees even chipped in with a 20-yard carry, the second longest of his career.

An impressive 80-yard TD drive in the second quarter showcased the diversity of the Saints' RB stable. During the six-play drive, the Saints' RBs pounded the Bucs for 50 yards on three straight carries (Ivory 12, Thomas 33, Ivory 5). Then two plays later, the deadly Darren Sproles caught a screen pass in the right flat and surreptitiously weaved his way for a 21-yard score.

* The run defense, the Saints' well-publicized achilles heel throughout this season, answered the bell on Sunday, limiting the Bucs to 84 yards on the ground. This marks just the second time this season the Saints have limited their opponent to fewer than 100 yards rushing (Chicago, 60).

In particular, Jonathan Cassilas had a standout performance for the defense, recording 10 tackles. Though only four of these tackles were solo, Cassilas consistently used his speed and quickness to shed blocks and find himself around the ball. At a linebacker position starved for playmakers, Cassilas' recent performance and continued development are a much-needed addition to this defense.

Additionally, Roman Harper played a fantastic game recording eight solo tackles (nine total), one sack, and one tackle for loss. For a guy who seems to garner a disproportionate amount of disdain when he plays poorly, Harper has consistently played at a high level in 2011. Yesterday's game might have been his best of the season, and aside from Will Smith and Jabari Greer, Harper is the Saints' best defender.

* Speaking of Jabari Greer, he quietly continues to perform as an elite CB. Greer recorded six tackles (five solo), one pass defended, and one tackle for loss. Greer's consistency, high level of play, and relative lack of attention outside of the New Orleans' area are reminiscent of another under-recognized, top player on the roster, Marques Colston.

Early in the 4th quarter, Greer made consecutive key defensive stops to force a Bucs' FG inside the Saints' ten yard line. On 2nd and goal from the seven, the Bucs ran a well-designed QB run to the right but Greer quickly diagnosed the play and made an excellent open-field tackle on Josh Freeman for no gain. Then on 3rd and goal, Greer broke up a pass in the back of the end zone intended for Mike Williams.

Greer's skill set is exceptionally well-rounded as he has proven equally adept in man coverage, zone schemes, and run support. Further, Greer's continued mentorship of second-year CB Patrick Robinson is a significant contribution as the Saints' secondary continues to play, mostly, at a worthy level.

Finally, I'd be remiss not to mention the Saints' excellent 3rd down defense. The Saints' limited the Bucs to just two conversions on twelve attempts. This is an important area for the Saints' defense and they've been mostly good in this area all season. On the year, the Saints' defense ranks 11th in overall third down conversions allowed per game, and 12th in third down conversion percentage allowed per game.

Coupled with the Saints' offensive excellence on third down, the defense's third down contributions will play a pivotal role in the Saints' fate in 2011.

THE BAD
* On the day, I counted four blown coverages on defense. Near the end of the first quarter, Scott Shanle and Leigh Torrence bungled coverage assignments on 3rd and 10 when Tampa was backed up to their 20 yard line. As a result, Preston Parker caught a pass for 36 yards and was eventually tracked down by Torrence.

Then just three plays later on a 2nd and 23, the Saints surrendered a 16-yard catch to Aurellius Benn when neither Shanle nor Greer covered Benn on the play. Luckily, a Tampa penalty on 3rd and 7 prevented the Bucs from turning these two busted coverages into points.

At around the three-minute mark of the second quarter, Leigh Torrence was again involved in what was either a blown assignment or just poor coverage. On 1st and 10 from the Bucs' 25, Dezmon Briscoe found himself wide open down the right sideline for a 46-yard gain, the Bucs' longest of the day. This big play led to a Tampa FG just prior to the end of the first half.

Lastly, early in the 4th quarter on a 4th and 3 inside the Saints' red zone, Preston Parker went uncovered on a key play that resulted in a first down and kept the Bucs hopes alive. Malcolm Jenkins clumsily interfered with Parker on the play, as he hurriedly rushed to cover the wide-open Parker.

I'm not sure whether these continued gaffes were the result of scheme (blitzes) or missed assignments but they were too frequent, giving the Bucs their two biggest plays of the day.

* The Saints' pass rush continues to be largely non-existent. Though Cameron Jordan played well and flashed signs of his first-round talent, the Saints front-seven was mostly unable to get to Josh Freeman. The team recorded just one sack, and that was from strong safety Roman Harper. Of the three QB hits on Freeman, only one came from the defensive line (Jordan).

That the Saints seem to blitz so frequently, yet sack or hit the opposing QB so infrequently, is mildly concerning (and annoying). If the Saints intend on competing in the postseason against elite passing offenses, they are going to have to generate some semblance of a pass rush from their front four.

THE UGLY
* Though I really don't want to be "that guy" who complains about the referees, let's just say the officiating could have been a bit better yesterday. And I'll just leave it at that.

* Tracy Porter's injury was a scary sight for Saints' and NFL fans alike. Porter made an excellent hit on the game's second play, stumbled to get up, and then lay on the turf for several minutes.

After being removed from the field and immobilized on a stretcher, Porter went to the hospital for tests on his head and neck. Thankfully, Porter checked out fine. Get better, TP. The Saints need you for a playoff run.

Worth Repeating
"November is a time where teams separate themselves from the rest. We want to be one of those teams. Hopefully this is a start." - Drew Brees

photos courtesy of Yahoo! Sports